According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 8962.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to the price on July 1st.

The market price of epichlorohydrin increased slightly in July. At the beginning of the month, the inventory pressure on the supply side was controllable, but downstream demand performance was mediocre, and the purchasing mentality was cautious and cautious, resulting in a weak market operation. With the narrow rebound of epoxy propane prices at a low level, market transactions are average and the market is stable. Entering the middle of the year, individual devices experienced fluctuations, downstream polyether new orders increased, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises improved, and the focus of negotiations in the epoxy propane market shifted upwards. In the latter half of the year, cost support still exists, supply side inventory is low, manufacturers have no pressure to raise prices, and downstream companies are mainly observing and following up appropriately.

Upstream propylene: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the reference price of propylene was 7098.25, a decrease of 0.49% compared to July 1st (7133.25). The price of raw material propylene fluctuated slightly in July, which still provides sufficient support for the epoxy propane market.

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that there is currently no pressure on the supply side, and the market atmosphere is still acceptable. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable and strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of ethylene glycol was relatively strong in the first half of July, and then began to decline slightly. Currently, the price is beginning to digest sideways. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4640 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.729% compared to the average price of 4561.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on July 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4600-4870 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4550 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4550-4700 yuan/ton.

On July 29, 2024, the spot basis of ethylene glycol at the port increased, while the contract basis was close to low and far from high. This week, the basis quotation slightly increased today, rising from+30 to+32 at the opening to+38 to+41; The base price for August is 42-46 yuan/ton, and for September it is 50-55 yuan/ton.

On July 29th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4150-4330 yuan/ton, including tax.

Low inventory supports firm operation of ethylene glycol prices

In the early stage, the explicit inventory data of the port significantly decreased, driving the price of ethylene glycol from 4400 yuan/ton to over 4700 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market was optimistic about imported cargo, and combined with the price hitting a new high for the year, the confidence of cargo holders loosened, and the price slightly fell back; According to recent port inventory data, the trend is still downward, and inventory is at a relatively low historical level. On July 29, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 566000 tons, a decrease of 136400 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 1, which was 702400 tons.

The price of ethylene glycol fluctuates excessively in the short term

From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the driving effect of inventory factors on prices in the early stage is weakening under the expected increase in imports. Currently, inventory levels are relatively low, which provides some support for prices; In terms of demand, downstream polyester is reducing production to maintain prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is weak.

From the perspective of changes in supply and demand at the near end, the increase in maintenance of synthesis gas plants in August and September may lead to an improvement in domestic supply and demand, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate more in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 20480 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 20280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% and an increase of 5.62% compared to the same period last year. On July 21, the bromine commodity index was 71.16, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.98% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 20.77% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been consolidating, with weak prices in the Shandong region. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton, and the decline in bromine prices has slowed down and gradually stabilized.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 1260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 48.24% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Supply and demand: Recently, some seawater bromine enterprises have been greatly affected by rainfall, while brine bromine is not significantly affected by weather, but has already begun maintenance due to weather conditions. The import volume of bromine to the port is gradually decreasing. The downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, with poor demand, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, with sufficient supply and stable upstream sulfur prices. Downstream flame retardant production is average, while agricultural and intermediate demand is average, resulting in poor demand. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to operate weakly in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently, the acrylic acid market has remained stable with a moderate to strong trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6587.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% compared to Monday’s price.

Cost aspect:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on July 18th, the reference price of propylene was 7175.75, an increase of 0.6% compared to July 1st (7133.25). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, and the cost has continued to be supported by the acrylic acid market, which has supported manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices.

Supply and demand side:

Recently, some enterprises have been operating with reduced capacity, and the capacity utilization rate of the acrylic acid industry has declined compared to last week. Terminal demand is mainly based on consumption contracts, and downstream inquiries and purchases are on demand. The market atmosphere for new orders is average.

Market forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term cost support is still relatively strong, but the demand side needs to be followed up appropriately, which may restrict the market growth. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply side equipment.

Aluminum prices are declining this week

Aluminum prices have decreased this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on July 11, 2024 was 20013.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88% from the market average price of 20396.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (July 7).

According to this month’s data, aluminum prices first rose and then fell, with a decrease of 0.58%.

Supply and demand fundamentals

On the supply side, there was a significant increase in ingot production in Qinghai, Guizhou and other regions in June. Based on current market expectations for aluminum alloys and feedback from enterprises, it is expected that domestic ingot production will continue to increase in July.

On the demand side: The domestic aluminum processing industry is mainly operating at a weak pace, with profile enterprises generally maintaining low operating rates and fewer industry orders. The industry orders for curtain wall panels and other sectors have significantly declined, and some small enterprises have reported a situation of production stoppage and reduction.

Inventory data: On July 11th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China’s major markets was 776000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons from 762000 tons on July 1st. On July 11th, the total spot inventory of aluminum alloys in China’s major markets was 28300 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from July 4th.

Future expectations

In the short term, aluminum prices are fluctuating weakly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of natural rubber in China has weakened recently (7.1-7.8). As of July 8th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% from 14557 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in domestic and foreign raw material production areas is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials has been falling all the way, causing cost drag on the domestic natural rubber market. As of July 8th, the price of Thai adhesive was 63.50 Thai baht/kg, a decrease from 70.45 Thai baht/kg at the end of June; As of the 8th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 13600 yuan/ton, significantly lower than 14500 yuan/ton at the end of June; The purchase price of all latex raw materials for glue production is around 13600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the end of June.

On the other hand, natural rubber inventories are slowly being depleted, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the overall market. As of July 7, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 493000 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.89%.

Downstream tire production is temporarily stable, with demand facing strong support from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of July 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.2%.

Market forecast: The current domestic and foreign raw material supply is gradually increasing, and the high price of natural rubber raw materials is falling back; In addition, downstream tire companies are currently operating steadily and are cautious in purchasing high priced goods; Overall, the natural rubber market is expected to narrow down in the short term after a recent high decline.