Last week (August 19-25), the sales of adhesive short fibers in the market were average, the market was running smoothly, and prices remained stable. The market for dissolved pulp, the main raw material, is operating steadily, with decent cost support. Downstream cotton yarn factories have average purchasing power, mainly consuming raw material inventory. Overall, the market demand is still light, and businesses are waiting for a new round of pricing policies from large factories. The market price of viscose staple fiber is temporarily stable, and downstream yarn factories need to pay attention to the follow-up of new orders in the future.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of adhesive short fibers remained stable last week (August 19-25). As of August 25th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price. Compared to the beginning of the year, the price of 12900 yuan/ton has increased by 4.65%.

Cost side support remains stable

The upstream raw material end main material dissolution slurry market is strong and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved slurry is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The prices of auxiliary materials in the market have fluctuated, with prices in the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market and sulfuric acid market remaining firm and stable. The liquid alkali market has experienced a narrow decline, while the adhesive short fiber market still has support.

Low inventory, still available supply

The pre maintenance equipment of the adhesive short fiber market has resumed normal operation, and most manufacturers’ equipment is running stably. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 83.72%. However, with the gradual delivery of orders from manufacturers in the early stage, the tight supply on site has been alleviated, and the inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are still at a low level. The performance of the supply side is still acceptable.

The demand side still appears sluggish

The transaction atmosphere in the downstream cotton yarn market is flat, and prices are stagnant and consolidating. As of August 25th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class product) is 17375 yuan/ton. The end market is still in the off-season of demand, and downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders. The overall operating rate of the industry is not high, and most yarn factories replenish their inventory to maintain normal machine operation. The demand side performance is average, and the new round of signed orders on site will last for about a month.

Future forecast

The raw material market remains strong and stable, with continued positive support from the cost side. The market supply is at a high level, and some manufacturers have eased their supply shortages. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, and multidimensional demand for goods is high. It is currently the off-season for textiles, and downstream demand for adhesive short fibers is unlikely to show significant signs in the short term. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Overall, it is expected that the adhesive short fiber market will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term, with limited price fluctuations, and the price is expected to be in the range of 13500-13600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 23rd, the domestic TDI market operated smoothly, with TDI domestic goods priced around 13700-13900 yuan/ton and Shanghai goods priced around 1390-14100 yuan/ton. On site offers were subject to market conditions, and actual transactions had room for negotiation. Downstream demand remains essential, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In the absence of favorable demand side conditions in the short term, it is expected that the TDI market will maintain a consolidation trend.

This week, the market situation of epichlorohydrin has fallen, and the price trend has declined. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shengyi Society was 7987.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to August 9th (8025.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the price trend of propylene market has declined, the price of liquid chlorine market first fell and then rose, and the raw material glycerol has steadily risen. Overall, cost pressures still exist. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6873.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.96% compared to the beginning of this month (7083.25 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: The operating rate of the epichlorohydrin industry was 50-60% within the week.

Downstream demand side: The consolidation and operation of the downstream epoxy resin market is the main focus. There is sufficient inventory, and some factories are temporarily shutting down to adjust the load of their equipment under inventory pressure. Downstream terminal inquiries are not active, cautious procurement of raw materials, insufficient follow-up on new orders, and weak signing volume.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that there is still cost pressure, insufficient follow-up of downstream new orders, cautious procurement of raw materials, and the main demand for transactions. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9333.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.41% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, downstream factories purchased according to demand, plasticizers were in low season, downstream enterprises had poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement, Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.

The price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell in August

According to the Business Society’s propylene commodity market analysis system, as of August 12th, the price of propylene was 6850.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 3.69% compared to the price of 7113.25 yuan/ton on August 1st; Compared to August 5th, the price of propylene has continued to decline by 7135.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.99%. The weak consolidation of crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for propylene; Acrylic manufacturers are operating steadily, with sufficient supply and increased shipments, resulting in a decline in propylene prices.

Downstream plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9111 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.09% compared to the DOP price of 9500 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry. The low demand for plasticizers in China, coupled with reduced exports, has led to a decline in demand for plasticizers and a decrease in the willingness of plasticizer manufacturers to operate. As a result, the plasticizer market is in a low season, with manufacturers operating at low levels and weak follow-up on actual sales. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, while the cost of isooctanol decreased; In terms of demand, the plasticizer market is in the off-season, and the demand for isooctanol is weak. Overall, the stable supply and poor demand of isooctanol have led to a decrease in costs, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 2nd to 9th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6007 yuan/ton to 5995 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 10.36%. The domestic ethanol market prices are running weakly and steadily, with the demand side continuing to be sluggish. Factories are experiencing a decline in shipping prices, but downstream purchasing power is limited, resulting in relatively flat trading volumes.

On the cost side, there is a strong atmosphere in the domestic corn market, and traders continue to lower prices in order to accelerate shipments, resulting in short-term downward pressure on corn. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions. Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.

On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continues and orders are postponed; The short-term anhydrous procurement of methyl ethyl ester remains stable; Ethyl acetate will restart the Baichuan plant next week, and the Anhui Huayi plant is scheduled for maintenance, with little fluctuation in short-term operation. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the negative impact of cost is expected, while the market supply remains abundant, resulting in overall shipping pressure. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that domestic ethanol prices will remain stable with a weak trend in the short term.

Since July, the butadiene rubber market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 15070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57% from 15310 yuan/ton at the beginning of July. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has also decreased; Shunding rubber production continues to remain low; The downstream tire production has recently declined, and the procurement of butadiene rubber has been relatively light. As of July 31, the prices of butadiene rubber in Daqing, Qilu, Yangtze and other cities in East China were around 15000-15300 yuan/ton, and private butadiene rubber were around 14500-14900 yuan/ton.

Since July, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the price of butadiene was 12662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% from 13700 yuan/ton at the beginning of July.

The construction of butadiene rubber in July remains at a low level.

On the demand side: Since mid July, downstream tire production has been declining, and in the short term, there is a certain drag on demand in the butadiene rubber market. Downstream inquiries are relatively cautious. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.4%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly decrease, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will decrease; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and there is not much pressure on the market supply; Currently, downstream tire companies are experiencing a decline in production, which is unfavorable for the demand for butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend in the short term.