This week (September 23-29, 2024), the adhesive short fiber market remained stable overall, with manufacturers mainly fulfilling orders; The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry equipment in the field has not changed much, and the output is generally the same as last week; During the week, various adhesive short fiber manufacturers maintained stable operation of their equipment, with limited fluctuations in market supply; The market price of the main raw material, dissolved slurry, remains firm and stable, with cost support remaining. There is still no obvious sign of improvement in the “Golden Nine” market, and the demand in the terminal market is flat; The overall price of adhesive short fibers remained stable during the week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (September 23-29, 2024). As of September 29th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Stable cost support

The upstream raw material end main material dissolution slurry market is strong and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved slurry is around 960 US dollars/ton, the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton, and the auxiliary material liquid alkali has slightly rebounded. The cost side of the adhesive short fiber market is supported by favorable conditions and remains stable.

Stable supply, low inventory

The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.

The demand has not shown significant improvement

Although it has entered the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding on to signing orders for essential needs, and the new round of orders on site is expected to take about a month. The recovery of demand is not as expected.

Future forecast

The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber is expected to stabilize at a high level, and the supply in the market is relatively tight. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with limited price fluctuations. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has experienced a significant decline this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6844 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6710 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 1.96% during the week.

The domestic isopropanol market experienced a slight decline in the early part of this week, but remained stable in the later stage. The production factory’s quotation remains stable, but the willingness of holders to lower their prices is not high. The market’s trading focus is stabilizing, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. They are cautious when purchasing goods due to urgent needs. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6600-6750 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6800-6850 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone fluctuated slightly this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5792.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5800 yuan/ton. The price first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase of 0.13%. At present, there is a decrease in low-priced goods in the market, and market trading needs to be followed up. It is expected that the market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week, indicating an overall decline in prices. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6773.25 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6703.25 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.03%. At present, the inventory of enterprises has decreased, and downstream companies are replenishing inventory at low prices. It is expected that the market may strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price will first decline and then stabilize this week. The acetone market first fell and then rose, while the propylene market price decreased, with average cost support. Holders of goods have low willingness to lower their prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm also needs to be followed up, with a focus on urgent needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic lithium carbonate market continued to operate weakly in mid September. On September 18th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 78200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.32% from the same period last month when it was 85800 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 75400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.16% from the same period last month when it was 83000 yuan/ton.

Major factory maintenance, short-term rise in spot market

On the morning of September 11th, market news reported that the Ningde Times Yichun project would be shut down for maintenance, and the lithium mica business in Jiangxi would be suspended.

Major factories have reduced production, and the supply-demand margin of the lithium carbonate market has improved. However, the long-term accumulation of excess capacity is difficult to change in the short term.

Supply side inventory decreases, production slightly increases

Recently, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate in the Chinese market has decreased, with a slight increase in production and numerous new projects being put into operation. The risk of excess has not fundamentally changed. And it is expected that the centralized cancellation of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts by the end of November will put pressure on the supply side.

Downstream demand is improving, which may provide support for prices

Since September, the demand for downstream power cells and energy storage cells has continued to improve. The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of new energy vehicles is strong, with intensive new product releases. In addition, the demand for overseas energy storage projects has increased, and the orders for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have continued to increase, further boosting market confidence.

The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the lithium carbonate market is currently in a supply-demand game, but the overall pattern is that supply exceeds demand, and the price of lithium carbonate is still under pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 9th to 13th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5937 yuan/ton to 5925 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 14.29%. The cost of domestic edible ethanol is still in a loss making state, with downstream demand for replenishment being the main factor. The overall trading atmosphere is still acceptable, but the willingness to replenish is limited.

In terms of cost, the domestic corn market price is weakly adjusted, new grain is accelerating its listing, and aged grain continues to supply the market, resulting in a significant price drop. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions. The ethanol supply is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continues and orders are postponed; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate is expected to resume production at Yankuang plant, with a rebound in production. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

The future forecast shows a negative impact on the cost side, while there is still no clear sign of improvement in downstream demand. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP hit a new low for the year in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8726.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.14% from the DOP price of 9500 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to the price of 12091.67 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the year, it has decreased by 27.83%. In the off-season of the plasticizer market in August, DOP prices continued their previous downward trend, hitting a new low for the year and the second largest monthly decline of the year.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since June, the plasticizer market has entered the off-season, and DOP prices have continued to decline, with DOP prices experiencing an 8-week consecutive decline. At the end of August, the price of DOP rose slightly, and the DOP market showed a trend of rebounding and stopping the decline.

The cost of raw materials has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the price of isooctanol was 7983.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.30% from the price of 9000 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month; The price of isooctanol decreased by 38.35% from the beginning of the year to 12950 yuan/ton. In the off-season of the August market, there were many inspections by isooctanol manufacturers, resulting in weak supply and demand for isooctanol. Downstream enterprises’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol decreased, and isooctanol manufacturers lowered prices for shipments, causing a significant drop in isooctanol prices and reaching a new low for the year.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by the phthalic anhydride method was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month. In August, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7500-7700 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7200-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. During the off-season from June to August, the phthalic anhydride market continued to decline. In August, the price of industrial naphthalene rebounded and rose, and the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market slightly rebounded. The ortho benzene market fell sharply, and cost support decreased. The ortho benzene phthalic anhydride market fell. The demand for plasticizers has rebounded less than expected, and the support for the rise in phthalic anhydride has weakened, leading to a decline in phthalic anhydride prices.

Demand recovery falls short of expectations

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the rubber and plastic index on August 30th was 696 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 34.34% from the highest point of 1060 points during the cycle (March 14, 2012), and an increase of 31.82% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present). During the off-season of the rubber and plastic industry market from June to August, domestic rubber and plastic enterprises had more maintenance work, resulting in weak supply and demand in the domestic rubber and plastic market. In late August, the rubber and plastic index stopped falling and rebounded, indicating a trend of recovery in the rubber and plastic industry. However, the overall increase in the rubber and plastic index in August was 0, indicating a poor market situation in the industry and a slower than expected recovery in demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell in August, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the rubber and plastic industry index declined in August, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover as expected. In terms of the future, as the Golden September approaches, there will be a rebound trend in the price of isooctanol in late August, and the recovery of the rubber and plastic industry is evident. The cost of raw materials for plasticizers and downstream demand expectations will both rise in the future, and it is expected that the price of DOP plasticizers will rebound and rise in the future.