1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 883 yuan/ton on October 1st, and 856 yuan/ton on October 30th. This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 3.02%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate first rose and then fell in October. Returning from the holiday at the beginning of the month, due to the strong urea market and favorable ammonium sulfate market, coupled with stable market demand, the market price of ammonium sulfate has risen. The market price of ammonium sulfate continued to decline from mid October until the end of the month. The operating rate of ammonium sulfate enterprises has increased, leading to an increase in market supply. The downstream purchasing intention is not strong, the market inquiries have decreased, and there are many low-priced purchases, causing the market transaction center to continuously shift downwards. The demand for exports has weakened, and the market is running weakly. As of October 30th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 820 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 830-880 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 1, 2024 to September 16, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate fell significantly in October, with the largest drop being -2.92% in the week of October 14th.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the trading atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market has been poor recently, downstream demand has weakened, and market transactions have been sluggish. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to be weak and mainly operate in the short term.

On October 28th, the market price of epichlorohydrin continued to decline. At present, the market trend of epichlorohydrin is weak, with a quiet trading atmosphere, few actual orders, low enthusiasm for inquiries, and mainly a wait-and-see attitude. As of October 28th, the mainstream price in the Shandong market is around 8600-8800 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic phenol market showed stability in the first half of the week and a slight increase in the second half. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7727 yuan/ton on the 18th and 7827.5 yuan/ton on the 25th, an increase of 1.29% for the week.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7750 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 7700-7750 yuan/ton. As of the 25th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 25th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7780./ 150

Shandong region/ 7900./ -50

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7750./ -50

South China region/ 7800./ -50

From the supply side, in terms of equipment, there was no on-off status of phenol ketone during the week, and the overall operating rate of the industry was over 80%. The port has seen an increase in inventory, with an initial count of around 10000 tons at the beginning of the week. In the middle of the week, domestic trade ships and cargo mainly arrived in Hengyang. Currently, there is not much pressure on spot supply, and coupled with the high average price within the month, traders have a greater intention to push up their offers. The market center of gravity will push up in the latter half of the week.

The downstream bisphenol A spot market has slightly declined, and overall it remained lukewarm in October. Market offers have been steadily maintained, and negotiations in the East China region have reached 8800-9000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to last month. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

It is expected that the overall market will operate weakly next week. According to statistics, there are still 28000 tons of goods in transit, and the overall supply may increase next week. Please pay attention to the market demand situation next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 14th to 18th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5562 yuan/ton to 5525 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.67% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 20.50%. The price of raw corn continues to decline, and the cost support for fermented corn ethanol has loosened. Affected by poor downstream demand, the company’s shipments are slow, and the ethanol market quotation has declined.

On the cost side, corn prices remain volatile and weak, with an increase in new grain listings. Traders have not yet exhausted their supply of aged grains, and the overall market supply is loose. Some traders continue to slightly lower their prices for shipments, and the price of aged grains is gradually approaching that of new grains. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions of the market remains stable, with some factories experiencing short-term shutdowns and plans to restart. Coal quality factories are operating normally. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support slightly improved; The purchase quantity of anhydrous methyl ethyl ester is stable; It is reported that the load of the Hunan unit has recovered, while the load of the Jiangsu Sopu unit has temporarily decreased, and there may be a decrease in operation. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future, downstream demand is expected to be average, and factories have a low willingness to sell at low prices. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market continued to decline in September 2024. From September 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 6950 yuan/ton to 5960 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 14.24% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the mixed xylene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices falling widely. The crude oil market continued to decline, dragging down market sentiment. Sinopec’s listing prices and refinery prices in various regions continued to decline, and the current market atmosphere is weak. On the demand side, we will continue to make essential purchases this week, but there is insufficient demand for oil products. The focus of negotiations is relatively low, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

At the end of the month, the mixed xylene market continued to operate weakly. Although crude oil prices rose, it provided some boost to the market. However, due to poor demand during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday in Shandong, local refining companies lowered their ex factory quotations, resulting in a low mentality in the spot market and a strong downstream pressure mentality, leading to an overall weak market operation. The overall market in other regions has also been affected, shifting from rising to falling.

Cost wise: The crude oil market is declining, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle. As of September 26th, international crude oil futures have fallen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.67 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $71.09 per barrel.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has been significantly reduced this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of September 27th, East China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5600-5700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6050-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by the ortho phthalic method was 7225 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st. The price of ortho benzene has dropped significantly, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. At the end of September, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7000-7200 yuan/ton, and the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride was 6900-7100 yuan/ton.

On September 30th, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7350 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the price on August 30th, 2024. During this price cycle, PX prices in East China, North China, Central China, and South China continued to decline both domestically and internationally. As of September 27th, CFR China’s closing price was 842-844 US dollars/ton, a cumulative decrease of 85 US dollars/ton from 927-929 US dollars/ton at the end of August.

External market: The Asian xylene market has experienced a wide downward trend during this period. As of September 27th, the Asian xylene market closed at $731-733 per ton FOB Korea in October, a decrease of $81 per ton; The closing price of CFR China in October was $741/ton, a decrease of $95/ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and cost support will be limited. Partial units in Shandong have resumed supply, and the supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose. From the perspective of demand, the downstream market has been operating weakly recently, and the market is maintaining a supply of essential goods. It is expected that in the short term, under the influence of negative market factors, the xylene market will continue to operate steadily, moderately, and weakly.