According to the commodity market analysis system, as of December 23, the DOP price was 8326.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 8576.25 yuan/ton on December 16. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the profit of plasticizer DOP is high, the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production has increased, the operating rate of plasticizers is high, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, the demand for plasticizers is falling, the risk of excessive inventory of plasticizer DOP is intensifying, and the price of plasticizer DOP is fluctuating and falling.

Downstream demand is lukewarm

Downstream PVC product enterprises have low production rates, and the downstream market is traditionally off-season, resulting in a decrease in downstream PVC production. The weather in the north is gradually turning cold, and demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

The cost of raw materials fluctuates and falls

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of December 23, the price of isooctanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.47% compared to the price of 8200 yuan/ton on December 16. In December, the production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level, and coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, the supply of isooctanol increased significantly in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol and causes its price to fluctuate and fall.

Future expectations

The data analyst of plasticizer products believes that in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers; On the supply side, plasticizer companies have high profits, and their enthusiasm for starting work has increased. With high starting work, the supply of plasticizers has increased. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The off-season still exists, and demand is declining. Due to cost reduction and oversupply, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since December 1st, terminal demand has been weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market has fallen weakly. On December 20th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 760 yuan/ton, and on December 20th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.14% in price.

Weak terminal demand and declining hydrogen peroxide market

Since December 1st, terminal demand has remained sluggish, with manufacturers purchasing only moderate amounts of hydrogen peroxide, dominated by negative factors. The hydrogen peroxide market has weakened and fallen, with an overall quotation of 700-720 yuan/ton. On December 20th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 600 yuan/ton, which was weakly stable, while the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 680 yuan/ton, which was stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 780 yuan/ton, which remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 950 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that by the end of December, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will continue to weaken, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to operate weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 1548 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 12.14%. On December 12th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.49% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.25% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and running. The ex factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1538 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Since December, the phenol market in mainstream regions across the country has been rising, with an average increase of around 200-300 yuan/ton. As of the 9th, the phenol market in East China was quoted at 8018 yuan/ton. The sentiment of traders reluctant to sell and reporting high prices is highlighted. During the same period, the price of raw material pure benzene has risen, and market benefits are concentrated. Traders have steadily pushed up their offers, with the focus accelerating. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7787 yuan/ton on December 1 and 8018 yuan/ton on December 9, with a 2.95% increase in early December.

The port inventory is low, and there is no replenishment of imported cargo. The cargo statistics in the East China region are 12000 tons, and have reached 6000 tons. The inventory at Jiangyin Port is at a low level of 6000 tons. The tightening of spot supply has highlighted the sentiment of traders being reluctant to sell and reporting high prices. During the same period, the price of raw material pure benzene has risen, and market benefits are relatively concentrated. Led by the increase in factory opening prices in the middle of the week, the pace of the upward trend has accelerated. With the continuous rise in prices, downstream demand is mainly driven by high prices, and trading has slowed down.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price range of 7900-8000 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 8000-8050 yuan/ton. As of the 9th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 9th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7900./ 150

Shandong region/ 8000./ 200

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 8050./ 200

South China region/ 8050./ 200

On the demand side, with the continuous rise of phenol, terminal enterprises are mainly driven by rigid demand and cautious in chasing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 8900-9100 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Business Society expects the phenol market to remain strong in the short term, with little pressure on spot supply. However, downstream companies are cautious about chasing high prices, and there is limited room for the market to continue rising.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 2nd to 6th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5437 yuan/ton to 5375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 20.96%. The domestic ethanol market is weak and declining, with some areas affected by previous snowfall, logistics disruptions, and shipment pressure. In addition, there is abundant spot supply, and there is obvious pressure for enterprises to reduce inventory. At the same time, the demand side support is poor, with rigid demand procurement being the main factor, resulting in a decline in ethanol prices.

On the cost side, the price of raw material corn is fluctuating strongly, and the profit margin of fermented corn ethanol is narrowly declining; The profit margin of ethanol has been compressed.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate production has slightly rebounded according to reports. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

The future forecast shows that there is significant inventory pressure on enterprises and limited support from the demand side. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that there is still room for a short-term downturn in the domestic ethanol market.

Since late October, domestic liquid ammonia has gradually bottomed out and stabilized, with the main trend being the fluctuation of ammonia prices in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province increased by 2.70% in November. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, there are more equipment maintenance in the northern region, leading to a decrease in operating rates and easing of supply pressure. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Excessive device maintenance and tight supply performance

In terms of supply, the main issue is the shortage of supply. In November, ammonia plants generally reduced their supply, and the production of equipment in the main northern production areas decreased. Since November, the increase in maintenance equipment and temporary shutdown of ammonia companies have affected some production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the Two Lakes region. Especially in the first and third weeks, there was a significant increase, with manufacturers raising their ex factory prices in a concentrated manner, with a cumulative increase of over 300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, with the recovery of supply, ammonia prices have rebounded slightly, so the ammonia market has emerged from an M-shaped trend. As of the end of the month, the liquid ammonia market is still in a downward trend, but the downward trend has slightly stabilized. Currently, the market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall improvement of the industrial chain is not significant, with mixed ups and downs in the upstream and downstream

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, there has been no significant improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia, and the upstream natural gas has experienced a significant decline, with a decrease of 5.14% as of the end of the month. Especially in the downstream sector, there is still a general cooling trend with mixed fluctuations. This is mainly reflected in the cold demand in the downstream sector, with agricultural demand entering the off-season and urea experiencing a significant decline, with a monthly decline of 9.74%. In addition, terminal production in major industrial demand sectors is showing a downward trend. The increase in compound fertilizer production did not meet market expectations, and the combination of the two factors resulted in insufficient market action. The demand side constrained the rise in ammonia prices, and this round of increase was mainly driven by the supply side.

Especially downstream urea has shown poor performance, with a 9.74% drop in November according to Shengyi Society. On the one hand, the supply performance is sufficient, but domestic urea manufacturers have insufficient ammonia conversion and high inventory. Combined with weak exports. On the other hand, there was no significant increase in downstream procurement volume, and the market performance remained calm.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that from the supply side, under the expectation of equipment maintenance, the supply pressure in the main production areas of the north will gradually ease, and there is a high possibility of a later decline. In addition, as winter enters, the increase in rain and snow weather in the north may limit short-term supply, and local supply-demand imbalances may lead to an increase in price differences.

From the demand side perspective, the early replenishment is gradually coming to an end, agricultural demand is gradually falling, and industrial demand is maintaining rigid demand. This may pose a constraint on ammonia prices in the future. However, considering that imports are still at a low level, a reasonable balance between supply and demand should be maintained in the short term.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to stabilize and stop falling in the near future. However, due to the easing of supply pressure in the short term, there may still be room for price upward movement. Nevertheless, the weak demand expectation during the winter off-season will intensify the supply-demand game, and the ammonia market may experience fluctuations. Additionally, prices between regions may be affected by weather, resulting in uneven distribution of supply and demand, leading to market differentiation and price fluctuations.

The brief supply-demand mismatch at the end of the month led to a slight increase in prices, with some refineries shutting down and limited production resulting in significant spot support. Although the brand price difference narrowed, low inventory limited refinery pressure, and prices mostly remained firm. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3450 yuan/ton on November 30th.

The destocking of social inventory in East China is relatively obvious, mainly due to the strong support of local demand, especially the significant consumption of ship cargo in some high-speed projects, which drives the destocking of inventory. Low inventory provides support for spot and future winter storage, while international crude oil continues to operate weakly, resulting in limited driving force for overall price increases.