In February, the raw material side was supported at a high level, and the hydrofluoric acid market trend was relatively strong. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 26th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.77% from the beginning of the month.

On the raw material side, the price of fluorite remains high, with some regions raising prices by around 100 yuan/ton. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price of fluorite provides positive support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3628.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3616.25 yuan/ton).

The market price of sulfuric acid is showing an upward trend. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 430.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.69% compared to the beginning of this month (385.00 yuan/ton). It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will continue to operate at a high level in the later stage, which will provide strong support for the hydrofluoric acid market.

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant companies have increased their demand for hydrofluoric acid. The trading atmosphere in the refrigerant industry is good, with a surge in orders for some refrigerant products, with a daily increase of 2000 yuan/ton. R134a has surpassed 44000 yuan/ton, setting a new annual high. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society R134a was 38000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% compared to the beginning of this month (37333.33 yuan/ton).

Market forecast: The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw materials continues to rise, supported by strong costs. In addition, the downstream refrigerant industry has a good trading atmosphere, leading to price increases and increased demand. Recently, the bidding price for hydrogen fluoride market has been implemented, with prices in East China ranging from 11500-11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400-500 yuan/ton from early February. Supported by favorable supply and demand, it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to show a strong trend in the later stage. More attention should be paid to the market supply and demand situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21, the average price of acetic acid was 2880 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 2830 yuan/ton on February 15, an increase of 1.77%, and a decrease of 2.37% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market continued to operate strongly, and enterprise quotations continued to rise. On the supply side, domestic acetic acid companies are scheduled for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site capacity utilization. At the beginning of the week, acetic acid companies’ quotations rose sharply, while downstream factories started production, resulting in decent demand and positive market transactions. With the support of favorable suppliers during the week, acetic acid quotations continued to increase.

As of February 21st, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ February 15th/ February 21st/ rise and fall

South China region/ 2900 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ +100

North China region/ 2730 yuan/ton/ 2805 yuan/ton/ +75

Shandong region/ 2780 yuan/ton/ 2830 yuan/ton/ +50

Jiangsu region/ 2825 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ +25

Zhejiang region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ +50

The upstream methanol market is fluctuating. From February 15th to 21st, the average domestic market price increased from 2578 yuan/ton to 2598 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.78%. The utilization rate of methanol production capacity remained high during the week. Although downstream external procurement boosted the mainland market, rational procurement was mainly maintained, and overall trading in the mainland market was weak and volatile.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has seen a narrow upward adjustment. On February 21st, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5110 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49% compared to the price of 5085 yuan/ton on February 15th. The upstream acetic acid market continues to rise, and the cost of acetic anhydride is favorable. Enterprise quotations have increased significantly, and the demand side is following up on demand. Acetic anhydride prices have slightly increased during the week.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the current utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is not high, and the supplier’s mentality is strong. Next week, domestic equipment maintenance or normal operation may resume, and the market supply will increase. Downstream actively follows up, and the supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced. It is expected that the acetic acid market will narrow and stabilize in the later stage, and the overall operation will be stable. The market will pay attention to downstream follow-up situation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21, the price of lead 1 # was 16975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the lead price of 17020 yuan/ton on February 17.

This week’s market analysis

The lead price continued to decline in the early part of this week and rebounded over the weekend.

Native lead

The progress of resuming production of overseas mines has been delayed, and it is expected that their output will not show significant growth in the short term. In China, although mines have reduced production due to seasonal factors, the impact of mine production reduction on the production of primary lead is relatively small due to the fact that the reserve scale of primary lead smelters in this round exceeded the historical normal level in winter. In addition, although smelters in Qinghai and other regions have experienced a slight decline in production due to equipment failures, overall, these unexpected factors have limited impact on the overall supply of primary lead, and it is expected that the production of primary lead will remain relatively stable in the short term.

Regenerated lead

With the resumption of production by recyclers, recycled lead smelters have reported an improvement in the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a decrease in the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the amount of scrapped batteries gradually recovers, the supporting role of waste battery prices on lead prices will become limited. From the perspective of smelting, according to the production schedule of various enterprises, the resumption of production of recycled lead smelters is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is expected to maintain a growth trend in the short term.

Demand side

Lead acid battery companies have a strong enthusiasm for resuming production, and it is expected that the operating rate of lead acid batteries will continue to show an increasing trend in the future. This positive demand trend will provide some support for lead prices.

comprehensive analysis

In the short term, the supply and demand of the lead ingot market are strong, and the trend of lead prices is dominated by changes in the supply of recycled lead. The resumption of production of recycled lead is accelerating, and an increase in supply may put pressure on lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 5th to 14th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8400 yuan/ton to 8371 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.18%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.14%. The domestic BDO market is experiencing weak consolidation. The industry has a low capacity utilization rate and is experiencing long-term losses. The overall downstream load of the terminal has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials. Both the supply and demand sides are supported, and the supply side maintains a stable market mentality.

On the supply side, new production capacity has not yet increased, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has declined again, with some support from the supply side. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The supply of calcium carbide remains high, and temporary power restrictions can alleviate inventory pressure in the short term, but it is difficult to change the current situation of oversupply. Raw material methanol: The growth rate of the domestic methanol market is limited. As of 10:00 am on February 14th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2620 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is weak, methanol prices are strong, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, TPU, and PU slurry have seen a significant increase in load, leading to an increase in raw material digestion. Most industries in the industrial chain are in a loss making state, with limited ability to accept high prices for raw materials. They hold multiple contract orders to follow up, and their intention to purchase spot goods is not strong. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Market forecast: Some equipment will soon be shut down, and supply side support will increase again; And the industry is in a loss making state, and the supplier’s price mentality continues. The downstream load of the terminal has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials. However, under cost pressure, spot purchases are cautious. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.