Since 2015, polyolefin price dip, up 2 out of this year. But the LLDPE spot prices are still in the vicinity of 9000, while PP has a big rebound this year, but the price level is still in a low level of 8000. The East China MTP cost, propylene monomer and PP feed back a granulation price respectively is 8070, 6975 and 7150, and PP1701 on the spot still has more than 200 of the premium, thus, the space below is not PP.

The current stock of tight supply situation. As of October 21st, petrochemical stocks continue to decline to 535 thousand tons of low. Sinopec is still stable in very price, on the spot of the strong support, and overall social inventory mainly concentrated in the hands of the traders, especially PP.

From the change of expected stock supply, which mainly include domestic (granules, return material supply and import two pieces). As of October 17th, the domestic polyolefin plant basically have to restart. PE only Lanzhou Petrochemical 170 thousand tons HDPE and 80 thousand tons of Yanshan Petrochemical 60 thousand tons of HDPE, LDPE and PP, restart the program, in addition to several long-term parking device, only the Hebei Haiwei Yanan refinery 300 thousand tons, 100 thousand tons and 150 thousand tons of Jinxi petrochemical PP unit has plans to restart.

From the material aspect, since 2015 the implementation of environmental policies, domestic feed back supply fell sharply. Although this year the return of low-cost advantage appeared again, but subject to the continuing impact of environmental policies, is expected to supply material difficult to rebound.

Although the rebound in domestic demand is steady, but due to internal and external disk continued upside down, imports are expected to grow to. Enter the “silver ten”, polyolefin demand into the season cycle, the downstream demand growth trend is still in, and the agricultural product operation rate is steadily recovering. As of October 20th, LLDPE and PP were respectively -397 and imported profit -487 yuan / ton, upside is still obvious. Therefore, the import growth was just for growth, will not exceed the expected rise, it is difficult to form the impact on the domestic market.

The new capacity devoted to suppress prices