since January, the holiday tired library and the downstream receiving goods will lower than expected the combined effects of PP1705 contract for 3% recent highs, due to the overall improvement of commercial atmosphere to stabilize rebound.

But before the Spring Festival tired library is still likely to continue as of January 11th, petrochemical stocks have been accumulated up to 780 thousand tons, taking into account the downstream replenishment to focus on the outbreak, the trend may still weak shock.

PP supply or continue to ascend

The recent PP supply mainly depends on the amount of memory in the supply and import. From the domestic stock supply, as of January 11th PP device maintenance rate was only 11.74%, which contains 4 units of long-term parking, so the overall rate of more than 90% boot device. Taking into account this device maintenance more, before the Spring Festival again more probability of maintenance is quite small, so the year before the high operation rate will continue to maintain.

From the point of view of imports, imports in December due to profit, and thrown into the domestic futures have profits, is expected to stimulate imports rebounded in January. In addition from seasonal, seasonal highs in January imports, imports of goods to Hong Kong early are concentrated in 1 and February. Overall, the domestic spot supply pressure PP before and after the Spring Festival are relatively large, which makes the downstream pessimistic before and after the Spring Festival market, delayed restocking behavior.

Years ago, the supply and demand pressures still

From just need, ahead of the Spring Festival this year to the end of January, while the PP downstream mainly to small and medium enterprises, operation rate down process before and after the spring festival. And now the woven profits are not good, ahead of the holiday business gradually increased, exacerbating the fall just before the spring festival. The second is in the downstream replenishment needs, although before and after the Spring Festival just need to continue downward trend will not change much, but because the current low inventory downstream, replenishment demand still exists, although the high prices continue to fall, there will appear in the downstream stocking behavior, but it is difficult to have the scale effect, before the Holiday Stocking will continue cautious.

In the long run, before and after the Spring Festival PP supply pressure will continue to increase, but just to be a down process, if the downstream restocking demand as expected until the year after release, so before the Spring Festival PP probably rate will continue to fall; and if the restocking demand release before the holiday, the Festival is at the expense of demand. The festival will also increase the pressure, so no matter what kind of situation, the overall market pressure will continue to exist, but the rhythm changes before and after the Spring Festival is still mainly short unilateral operation.