In January 31st China coincided with the Spring Festival lunar new year, Thailand Hatyai raw materials market rose for 5 consecutive days to hit a new high, glue up to 88 baht / kg, while in the previous week for 83 baht / kg, affected by glue output scarce, smoke film prices rose to a new high of 97.89 baht / kg. But then follow on gum market began to fall sharply, basically taking three days or.

Comprehensive market news, analysis of the fluctuation of raw materials in Thailand Zhuo think, show the transformation of the market trading mentality of both sides. Previously affected by the floods, the production of raw materials have received great difficulties, but also make the market price step by step up speculation hoarding and profiteering. However, with the southern weather, who stockpile and demand side trading loose, and Thailand in February 14th will continue to throw storage 100 thousand tons, affected by the market supply to outflow, so that prices fell loose.

The central bank raised the open market repurchase rate, monetary easing or reverse

In February 3rd, after the first day of the Spring Festival, the central bank will increase the open market operation of reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points, and today’s net return of funds 70 billion yuan, net return for five consecutive days. This is interpreted as a signal of monetary policy reversal, to tighten monetary easing, the interest rates have been interpreted as a disguised interest rate hike, which is in the stabilization of the economy in the short term inflation picked up in the background, the central bank introduced the prevention of financial risks and credit to leverage initiatives.

This tightening of funds and to signal leverage is expected to overweight, the bond market and the stock market, futures market funds have to lighten up to leave, black, rubber and so on was a sharp sell-off, a substantial outflow of funds, taking three days or before the holiday. HuJiao main 1705 fell more than 4%, as of midday the main outflow of funds 590 million yuan.

Rubber supply and demand rebalancing, chicken market cautious optimism

Although the price of natural rubber in the end of 2016 years to rebound, but the structure of the industry chain is still in the stage of adjustment, also need to balance the supply and demand structure. The upstream supply by factors of production can not be anti after the climate change for the better and existing low inventory, high price conditions, idle capacity may effectively release next February and a quarter is still in the periodic inventory replenishment process, and is in a stop cutting stage, supply increment in the first quarter probably slowed.

Downstream demand side should be viewed dialectically, positive contradiction is a quarter of the overall downstream demand is expected to continue high growth at the end of last year, with the corresponding U.S. tire dual settled final and domestic passenger car purchase tax preferential policies halved, exports to the United States and the situation of small passenger cars falling demand; the opposite contradiction is the heavy truck replacement cycles the marginal effect, capacity to influence policy in real estate regulation and economic, and economic growth continued to decline, the policy of heavy truck demand or reached a critical point in the year, the lower new tire demand inflection point will appear.

In addition, the prices of raw materials prices to promote the industry under the background of enterprise financial pressure will not be reduced, only to end up to conduction, weak contradictions make industry liquidity tight, business conditions may face cash flow problem.

At present a comprehensive environment, the industry believes that the fundamentals of supply and demand is still strong support, tightening monetary policy or is now mainly due to withdrawal of funds back, but in the capital market heat dissipated after stage contradictions in the supply or actual production is expected, so we have cautious optimism on rubber.