Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 2, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2404 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market was mainly volatile.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market maintains regional trend, while the mainland market weakens. On the port side, with the fluctuation of futures moving up, the new VAT policy should be implemented, and the impact of outflow of packaged goods should be paid more attention. In the mainland market, some installations in Northwest China have been inspected in spring, which supports the surrounding prices. However, under the current security supervision and environmental protection restrictions, the traditional downstream works such as formaldehyde are on the low side, the rework time of some installations is delayed, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the short-term market will continue the trend of differentiation, and the implementation of spring inspection and futures performance in Northwest China should be paid more attention in the later period.

Domestic freight of methanol has been sorted out recently. The freight from the northern Inner Mongolia line to northern Shandong is 120-140 yuan/ton, and from the southern line to northern Shandong is also in this range. Part of Shanxi Province is 90-110 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province, and 100-150 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province and 120-180 yuan/ton to the south of Shandong Province. Xinjiang to North Shandong refers to 580 yuan/ton nearby, Ningxia to North Shandong 240 yuan/ton nearby.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material market collation, cost support is still acceptable; under the continuous impact of security inspection, Linyi formaldehyde enterprises start low load, formaldehyde resources supply tightened. At present, Linyi in Shandong Province is around 1600 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are around 1500-1550 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market fell steadily at the beginning of the week. Due to the high storage pressure of individual enterprises in Henan, the continuous downward adjustment stimulates shipment. Then it affects the decline of the center of gravity in East and South China. However, the centralized maintenance of some devices in the field led to a slightly stronger mentality, such as in North China and East China. Under the coexistence of supply shortage, demand and export are difficult to improve, and the market climate is weak. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether Market is stable, the market atmosphere is general. Manufacturers’shipments are blocked, but the market supply is low, and the sellers’ mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the domestic dimethyl ether market will have a narrow fluctuation in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: On the positive side, futures: futures shocks rise, supporting spot prices to a certain extent; olefins: Inner Mongolia new MTO smoothly put into operation, supporting favorable factors; installations: the recent spring inspection of some northwest projects, short-term supply area inventory reduction expectations. On the negative side, demand side: recently, local dimethyl ether, acetic acid and other devices (planned) stopped, local demand decreased; downstream start-up: under the influence of safety supervision and environmental protection, the traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde start-up was limited, and the resumption of production time of some devices was delayed; macro: it is known that the implementation of fee reduction and tax reduction policy began in April, the cost side declined, and the incentive force of tax gap to arbitrage outflow will gradually increase. Highlight. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to differentiate, and that the implementation of spring inspection in Northwest China and futures performance will need to be paid more attention in the later period.