Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid Market shocked and adjusted this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2983 yuan/ton, and the average price of acetic acid in the weekend was about 3000 yuan/ton, up slightly by 0.56%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2700-2750/ton; in Shandong is about 2950-3100 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2950-3000 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2500 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2900-3000 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3050-3150 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3050-3100 yuan/ton, which is 34.78% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic acetic acid market shocks and adjustments, affected by the centralized overhaul of enterprises, the overall supply of the industry is tight, but due to the weak downstream market demand, acetic acid market prices remain stable. Eastern China market enterprises have a lot of negative overhaul, a little low inventory, but the overall delivery is not good. Affected by the low price of acetic acid in Northwest China, acetic acid prices in North China have a negative impact. In terms of start-up, Yankuang Cathay Pacific 1.1 million tons/year plant overhaul is expected until the end of the month; Nanjing BP 500,000 tons/year plant overhaul is expected until the end of April; Hebei Jiantao 500,000 tons/year plant overhaul at the beginning of the month is expected to take place until April 20; Nanjing Celanese 1.2 million tons/year plant overhaul at the end of March is about to restart; Shanghai Wujing small plant is scheduled to overhaul in mid-April, and is expected to do so. Ten days or so; the overall starting rate is between 60 and 70%.

Industry chain: upstream, the domestic methanol market is affected by the spring inspection in Northwest China, the overall supply of the industry is tight, up 0.99% in a week, the current average price is about 2452 yuan/ton; the acetate industry as a whole is weak, the industry has a flat buying atmosphere, there is no favorable support at the end of demand, mostly wait-and-see attitude; the PTA market is affected by centralized overhaul of equipment, the price gradually rebounds, but the demand side is weak. Current shock adjustment.

International: Affected by the stability of raw material methanol, the acetic acid Market in North America is stable, at present about 575 US dollars per ton; the acetic acid Market in Asia is affected by overhaul, the market supply has declined, but the demand side performance is not good, the overall stability is relatively stable, the quotation is 400-450 US dollars per ton; the acetic acid Market in Europe is flat, currently around 695 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic acetic acid market is in a period of centralized maintenance. Enterprises have more overhauls until the end of April. Most areas have tight supply and low inventory. However, the overall demand is not good and the export side is not well supported. It is difficult to make a big improvement in the short term. Future markets need to pay attention to the start-up of enterprises. Acetic acid analysts at business associations predict that the acetic acid market will be dominated by shock consolidation in the near future.