I. Trend analysis
According to the data of business associations, the market of cis-butadiene rubber in June was mainly weak. The price at the beginning of the month was 11,350 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price fell slightly to 10,900 yuan/ton. The overall price at the end of the month fell by 3.96% compared with the beginning of the month.
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II. Market Analysis
Petrochemical ex-factory price: domestic cis-butadiene Petrochemical ex-factory price was reduced by about 700 yuan/ton in June. According to the business association, as of June 30, the ex-factory price of cis-butadiene rubber in Daqing Petrochemical Company was 10,800 yuan/ton.
As far as installation is concerned, according to business associations, two sets of 160,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber units in Daqing Petrochemical Company are in normal operation with a load of about 90%; Qilu Petrochemical Company is in full negative operation with a load of 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit; Yanshan Petrochemical Company is in normal operation with a load of 80% and a stock of cis-butadiene about 1100 tons.
Demand: The main downstream tire production of synthetic rubber declined year-on-year, to a certain extent, forming a negative impact on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to statistics, in May 2019, the domestic output of rubber tyres was 72.043 million, down 2.33% annually, up 0.2% year-on-year; in January-May, the domestic output of rubber tyres was 33.3767 million, down 2.4% year-on-year.
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Raw material: The decline in raw material prices has a negative impact on the price of butadiene rubber. In June, the price of raw material butadiene fell, from 8,551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8,401 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 1.75%. Substantive purchasing demand of downstream terminal plants has not improved, which is bad for cis-butadiene rubber.
Import: In May 2019, China imported 507,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, which was 8.98% lower than the ring ratio, and 263.5 tons from January to May. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 3.5%.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is weakening, which makes it difficult to support the price of cis-butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the market demand of downstream tires has not improved significantly, which is not conducive to cis-butadiene rubber as a whole, and the market of cis-butadiene rubber is expected to remain weak in the short