Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the price of methane chloride in Shandong Province fell sharply at the beginning of this week: the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong decreased by 110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, currently by about 2450 yuan/ton, 4.3% lower than the previous day as a whole; the average price of trichloromethane decreased by 100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and currently by about 2200 yuan/ton, the whole fell compared with the previous day. The amplitude is 4.35%.

II. Cause Analysis

Reasons for products: At present, most domestic methane chloride production enterprises produce normally, and the supply in the industry is stable. Because the downstream refrigerant market is in the off-season and some industries are restricted by the National Day, the overall demand of the methane chloride market is weak. Enterprises have dramatically lowered their quotations to reduce the storage pressure. Among them, methane chlorination in Shandong area. The price reduction ranges from about 100 yuan/ton to about 2 450 yuan/ton for dichloromethane in Shandong and 2 200 yuan/ton for trichloromethane; 2750-2950 yuan/ton for dichloromethane in East China and 3800 yuan/ton for trichloromethane in Jiangsu: 2850 yuan/ton for dichloromethane and 2850 yuan/ton for trichloromethane in Jiangxi.

Industry Chain: Upstream, domestic methanol market is better affected by futures boost and pre-holiday reserve intention, and prices continue to rise. At present, the average price is about 2192 yuan/ton, which is 32.66% lower than the same period last year. After the end of gas restriction, the natural gas market continues to decline. In order to alleviate the pressure of shipment, manufacturers continue to downgrade their quotations, currently 2883 yuan/ton. The recent performance of the liquid chlorine market is still acceptable. Influenced by the poor downstream demand, mainstream enterprises began to deliver at low prices. At present, more than 200-400 yuan per ton is reported by enterprises. On the downstream side, the market demand for refrigerants has been weak recently, the after-sale market is just in short supply, and traders are mostly on the wait-and-see attitude. At present, the R22 market offers more than 14000-17000 yuan/ton, and the R134a market offers about 24000-28000 yuan/ton. The market as a whole starts at a low level, but the supply is abundant; the industries such as solvent, medicine and pesticide intermediates are limited by environmental protection. Strict production, the overall just need to be flat.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the domestic methane chloride market as a whole started stable, the spot supply is sufficient, the downstream market just needs poor, coupled with limited logistics transportation in some areas during the National Day, poor shipment led to some enterprises TRADERS’reserve intention level. It is expected that the market of methane chloride will be weak in the short run.