Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose sharply this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 8425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 9000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 6.82% in the week. The price of cyclohexanone rose by 12.97% from the same period last month and fell by 29.13% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market rose broadly during the week, Saudi Arabia was attacked during the Mid-Autumn Festival, crude oil rose sharply at the beginning of the week, pure benzene rose sharply, the cost of cyclohexanone was strongly supported, the factory spot supply was normal, and the price was low. At the beginning of Zhou Dynasty, Sinopec raised its pure benzene by 150 yuan/ton, its downstream caprolactam by 500 yuan/ton, and phenol by a high level. The cost of cyclohexanone in phenol process was not dominant. Some chemical fibre factories increased their demand for cyclohexanone. Solvent users actively purchased solvent, which boosted the upstream and downstream. Crude oil fell sharply in mid-week and pure benzene external market fell sharply, which had a negative impact on the market mentality. In terms of price, the mainstream ex-factory price was 8900-9100 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week. The mainstream negotiation in Shandong market is in the range of 9000-9100 yuan/ton cash delivery, the mainstream negotiation in East China market is in the range of 9200-9400 yuan/ton cash delivery, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market is in the range of 9400-9500 yuan/ton cash delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, pure benzene prices rose this week. Saudi oil field was attacked, crude oil surged early in the week, driving FOB Korea pure benzene to rise more than $50 per ton, and East China pure benzene offer also exceeded 6000 yuan per ton. Sinopec’s listing rose to 5900 yuan/ton in time. However, as the industry expects Saudi crude oil facilities to recover soon, this round of increase is only due to short-term psychological support, difficult to sustain, and the downstream has established stockpiles of raw materials, so there is no willingness to pursue this round of rise downstream factories, trading only occurred in the hands of traders. With Saudi Arabia’s announcement that crude oil will return to its pre-attack production level by the end of September and that Saudi oil exports will not decrease in September, supply risk concerns have eased and international oil prices have plunged. After losing the good support of crude oil, the market mentality changed, and the internal and external markets subsequently fell.
Caprolactam: The domestic caprolactam market rose this week. On September 14, Saudi Arabia’s Amy Oil Company was attacked by drones, which caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices and led to a continued strong rise in pure benzene. The sharp rise in upstream costs has provided good support for caprolactam. On Tuesday, the listed price of caprolactam increased by 500 yuan/ton to 13200 yuan/ton in September. In addition, the stock of caprolactam factory is not high recently. Spot price has followed the push up. However, as Saudi Arabia’s news-loss output has recovered 70% to curb the market atmosphere, crude oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days, forming a negative impact on commodity market confidence. In terms of price, the price of liquid caprolactam in East China market ranges from 1270 to 12800 yuan per ton, and it is accepted and delivered to Shandong factory. Shandong factory has 12,200 yuan per ton of first-class goods.

Adipic acid: This week, the domestic adipic acid market experienced a short period of market driven by news. The crude oil incident at the beginning of the week pushed up pure benzene and many bulk products. Adipic acid was also passively pushed up. However, the news turned short quickly in the middle of the week, and adipic acid cooled down rapidly under the weak supply and demand situation. At the beginning of the week, the crude oil boom led to a sharp rise in the external market of pure benzene, and Sinopec also closely followed the increase in the exchange rate. This settlement cycle has increased by 600 yuan/ton. The adipic acid market has been weak for a long time, the factory has released the willingness to support the market, Liaohua has been quick to adjust and follow up, and some of the lower and middle reaches are also stimulated by news to increase the enthusiasm of buying market. Middlemen are passively following up on concerns about cost, factory boom and downstream buy-up, while crude oil fell rapidly on Tuesday evening, the atmosphere of the midweek bulk market generally weakened, adipic acid returned to rational supply and demand dominance, the market cooled rapidly, the weakness of downstream TPU and nylon more attacked the market mentality, and short positions were active and low-price spread frequently. At present, the main equipment has restored stability, the demand has not seen a boost signal, the market has returned to the embarrassing situation of pressure from top to bottom, the mindset divergence is slightly weak, the willingness to ship is widespread, but the middlemen are also concerned about the settlement at the end of the month, too low to be easy to get out, the midstream and downstream counter-offer pressure is the majority, and the market atmosphere is temporarily difficult to boost.
3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term spot supply of cyclohexanone fluctuates little, downstream caprolactam profit is not large, procurement caution, solvent consumption has limited impact. Pure benzene weakened and cyclohexanone cost support was unstable. Cyclohexanone analysts of business associations predicted that the short-term cyclohexanone market fluctuated narrowly.