I. price trend

The domestic ethanol market rose this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the week was 5400 yuan / ton, while the domestic ethanol market price at the weekend was 5430 yuan / ton, up 0.56% in the week, 0.56% month on month, 2.65% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic ethanol market is mainly higher. In the week, the automobile transportation and logistics in Northeast China were still tense. Some large factories in Heilongjiang queued up to pick up the goods, which pushed up the positive mentality, but there was no significant volume in the transaction. The early contract was still executed for the shipment. The shipments in Jilin were shipped more frequently, and the liquor companies were full of wait-and-see mood, and there was no price increase operation. The supply of goods in Northeast China was limited, the local spot was tense, and the dealers were reluctant to sell, so the offer was made within the week. The price of raw corn in Central China recovered slowly. Meanwhile, the demand for liquor increased in winter, and the delivery of liquor by liquor enterprises was smooth. In the week, Huaxing device produced liquor, but the inventory of each company was not high, and the focus of trade and investment was high. The supply in South China was still limited, and part of molasses alcohol was used. There is no alcohol in the device, cassava alcohol is only produced in xintiande, and the stock is tight. Guangdong mostly relies on Guangxi’s source of goods for export, and the liquor companies’ offer remains high.

Industry chain: in the upstream, corn: up to now, the continuous harvest of new season corn in Northeast production area is 30% in Heilongjiang Province, and about 50% in Jilin Province. In the past few days, with the increase of new grain supply, the purchase price of northeast deep processing enterprises has been running in a weak position, but in the near future, with the reduction of production in some regions, the price of corn has stopped falling and stabilized. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the listing of new grain in Northeast China.

In terms of downstream ethyl acetate, the domestic market for ethyl acetate held steady this week. Entering the market after the festival, no matter the manufacturer or the intermediate trader, or even the downstream customers are more cautious. On the one hand, the operation rate of raw acetic acid industry has risen in a straight line. Many early-stage parking and maintenance devices have been restarted at the end of September. In addition, the inventory accumulation during the National Day has led to a great pressure of decline. On the other hand, the operation rate of ethyl acetate industry is also not low. Although some devices have been reduced during the holidays, the supply side is still in a bad situation. After the festival, the downstream replenishment of the market is slightly supported, the delivery and investment are temporarily stable, and the manufacturer’s early stage is basically based on the delivery and storage. Although the late trading slowed down, the two units of Shandong Yankuang stopped unexpectedly, which gave the market some confidence. In the second half of the week, the northern market had a rising mentality, but the market range did not change much, and Shandong Yankuang restarted driving at the end of the week, which made it difficult for the market to rise in a short time. In terms of price, East China delivered 5750-5850 yuan / ton, low-end spot exchange, high-end acceptance; North China delivered 5700-5800 yuan / ton, South China 5950-6050 yuan / ton, low-end cash self delivery.

III. future forecast

The shortage of automobile transportation still affects the supply level of East China and other places, while the weather turns cold and the demand for liquor gradually rises. The ethanol analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic ethanol market may be temporarily strong in the short term, but in the long term, it is still difficult to push the price up in Northeast China, or it may be a negative market.