I. price trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been slightly consolidated. As of November 4, the price of butadiene was 8881 yuan / ton, down 23.31% on a month on month basis and 10.66% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business club.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene market has been slightly sorted out. After the price of northeast manufacturers continues to be slightly reduced, it will stimulate the next generation to just need to replenish the warehouse. The improvement of the goods source transaction will support the mentality of some businesses. The middlemen usually make offers based on this transaction level. The delivery price of superior products in Shandong Province is 8400 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is 8800 yuan / ton. The actual price is negotiated. However, Sinopec and the external market prices continue to decline, and the downstream cautious attitude remains.

In terms of market, the butadiene market in Shandong Province is slightly weak, the price of Fushun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is lowered, and the transaction is slightly improved. The middlemen make an offer based on this transaction level, and the delivery price of superior products is 8400 yuan / ton, with the actual single negotiation. The butadiene market in East China is dominated by weak consolidation. Sinopec and its external prices continue to decline. The downstream wait-and-see mentality remains unchanged. Sporadic middlemen refer to the prices in the north for offer, and the prices sent to them refer to about 8800-8900 yuan / ton. The actual price is negotiated.

In terms of units: Yangzi Petrochemical’s 220000 T / a unit, 3 × long-term shutdown; 1 × 120000 T / a unit and 2 × 120000 T / a unit are in normal operation; Zhenhai Refining and chemical’s 165000 T / a unit is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply, with a small amount of export; Jiangsu silbang’s 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit is in normal operation, with supply contract. Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 T / a unit is in normal operation and the goods are exported normally.

III. future forecast

The lower reaches just need to digest the domestic spot at the slightly lower price node. The improved market transaction will support the mentality of some businesses. In addition, the rising profits of the lower reaches will boost the start-up slightly, which will basically support the market. The export volume of northeast manufacturers is worthy of attention. If the manufacturers continue to increase the volume, the supply will still be under pressure. According to the prediction of butadiene analysts of the business community, domestic butadiene The overall market decline is not big, it is recommended to pay attention to the information guidance.