I. price trend

According to the monitoring of business agency data, as of Friday (November 16), the average price of n-butanol in the mainstream region was 6200 yuan / ton (including tax), which was 1.36% higher than that of last Friday (November 11). At present, the main quotation of n-butanol in China is about 6150-6700 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: the center of gravity of n-butanol market this week is relatively stable compared with last week. At the beginning of this week, the load of n-butanol plant has increased. However, some n-butanol plants have been delayed to restart, resulting in tight spot supply in the market, and the market center of gravity has moved up slowly. As the price of raw material propylene has risen, the cost of n-butanol has increased, the price has increased slightly, and the transaction status is stable. In the middle of the week, the load of some units of n-butanol was restored, the load of units of Shandong large factory was increased, and the Northeast unit was restarted. The market supply of n-butanol is expected to continue to increase. The wait-and-see atmosphere of buying is not reduced, the market supply is improved, and the downstream purchase is on demand, the overall transaction is normal, and the price fluctuation is not big. At present, the trading volume of n-butanol in East China market is around 6200-6300 yuan / ton; the quotation of Wanhua chemical at the beginning of this week is slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with that of last week, the ex factory quotation in North China is 6200 yuan / ton, the ex warehouse quotation in East China is 6450 yuan / ton, and the ex warehouse quotation in South China is 6700 yuan / ton. The quotation in this week continues to be stable without fluctuation.

Industry chain: this week, the overall price of propylene market is stable, moderate and slight increase, and the trend is weak. The market supply is slightly increased, the overall supply and demand is stable, the manufacturer’s shipment is normal, the main price is stable, and the propylene inventory is still low. However, some downstream enterprises stop for maintenance, and the demand is reduced. As of November 16, the market turnover is still around 7240-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7350 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, the supply side of the n-butanol market will increase, and the supply and demand pressure will gradually expand in the later period. It is difficult for propylene on the cost side to drive n-butanol. It is expected that the market of n-butanol will decline again next week.