I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic methanol market is reflected in the rise and fall among regions. As of November 20, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2086 yuan / ton. Prices fell 11.23% month on month and 21.76% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: domestic methanol market performance is different, up and down are reflected. In terms of the mainland market, the atmosphere in some regions is fair and the trend continues to rise under the partial stop of sales; at present, the port market is in linkage with each other during the maintenance period, showing weakness, and needs to pay attention to the futures market dynamics in the short term. With the decline of port market price, the price difference between the port and the mainland has been widened, some imported goods continue to flow into the mainland market, and some enterprises in Shandong have been selling less goods. It is expected that the market will show a trend of differentiation in the near future. In addition, orange early warning will start in Wen’an, Hebei Province. The board factory plans to shut down for 5-7 days, and some board factories in Henan Province are also limited.

In terms of Futures: on November 19, the position increase of methanol futures main contract ma2001 of zhengshangsuo fell sharply, with a minimum of 1891, closing down 36 in 1925, 3.487 million transactions and 412610 additional positions.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: Recently, due to the parking of plate factories in Shandong formaldehyde market, the stock is high, the goods are not smooth, and the trend is weak. Among them, the price of Linyi and its surrounding areas is around 1000-1500 yuan / ton, the high-end price is in Zibo area, and the low-end price is below 1000 yuan / ton.

Acetic acid: the domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable and soft. The inventory of Northern Enterprises is low and the offer is firm. The inventory of enterprises in Northwest China decreased, and the offer was slightly increased. The enterprises in Lunan and central China have not signed the bill smoothly, and the actual bill has declined. As a whole, the delivery of low-cost orders and long-term orders in the early stage is close to the end, the spot sales in the later stage are relatively increased, and the downstream demand is low, and the procurement is poor. Export negotiations are rare.

Dimethyl ether: the market of dimethyl ether rose slightly, and the main units arranged well, but there was no obvious positive support on the news, the seller’s rise was limited, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the short term.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: on the positive side, cost: it is reported that the price of natural gas has been strong in the near future, and the methanol cost in southwest and other places has been fairly supported; demand: partial sales have been stopped, supporting the trend of some regions; the central bank continues to release water, carry out the net investment after the reverse repurchase operation of 120 billion yuan, and further relax. On the negative side, the external market: the price of the external market is low, and the imported goods impact the price of the domestic market; supply: the port inventory remains high, and the overall construction in the mainland is stable, and the supply side is relatively abundant; the port price is low at present, part of the spot flows into Shandong and other places, impacting the local market. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by differential consolidation, and there is a greater possibility of regional ups and downs.