I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 continued to rise this week. On December 2, the average price of mainstream manufacturers was 16166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of weekend (06) was 17100 yuan / ton. This week’s market rose, down 7.57% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market price of R22 in refrigerant market keeps rising this week. At the end of R22 year, the quota of the enterprise was gradually absent, the supply was tight, and the market began to be out of stock. Most of the manufacturers basically did not receive new orders, produced according to the quota, and mainly supplied orders before. Hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end are strongly supported, terminal construction is at a low level, the demand for refrigerant R22 is flat, the supply of goods in the hands of traders is tight, the sense of hoarding is strengthened, the price continues to push up, but the transaction is flat. According to the data monitoring of Italian society, as of December 6, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17100 yuan / ton, and the quotation was mostly concentrated in the range of 14500 yuan / ton to 18800 yuan / ton. The trend of refrigerant R22 was strong.

R22 is currently the most widely used medium and low temperature refrigerant, but it has been gradually replaced because of its great harm to the ozone layer. According to the Montreal agreement, R22 will be completely eliminated by 2030, so the manufacturer is required to produce according to the national quota. This year, the supply of fluorite is tight, and R22 quota is reduced again. Under the condition of constant demand, the enterprise quota bottoms at the end of the year. It is reasonable that the price rises. In addition, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the end of the raw material is getting better. With the support of good conditions, the price of refrigerant R22 keeps rising.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The price of domestic trichloromethane for upstream products has remained stable. Due to the shortage of goods in the early stage, the supply in the industry is still tight at present. The downstream market has a flat intention to receive goods, and the trade and investment in the industry is slightly light. The terminal air conditioner manufacturer starts at a low level and the demand is flat.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, the raw material end of refrigerant R22 is strongly supported, the quota margin of the enterprise is very few, there is no market or price in the market, and there is a shortage of goods. It is expected that the trend of refrigerant R22 will remain strong in the short term.