1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of propylene fluctuated up and down in 2019, and fell at a low level at the end of the year. At the beginning of the year, the price of propylene is 8010 yuan / ton, which is a relatively high price in the year. At the end of the year (December 25), the price of propylene is 6648 yuan / ton, which is a relatively low price in the year, with an annual decline of 17.01%. The annual high price is 8310 yuan / ton on January 8 and 9; the annual low price is 6630 yuan / ton on March 9 and 10; the annual amplitude is 20.22%.
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2、 Analysis and comment
Product: in January, domestic propylene (Shandong) showed a wave like trend, and went out of two and a half waves. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 8010 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7880 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 1.62%. The high price of this month is 8306 yuan / ton on January 8 and 9; the low price of this month is 7780 yuan / ton on January 26 and 27, with a monthly amplitude of 6.38%.
In February, domestic propylene (Shandong) fell in shock. In the first half of the month, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the propylene market is generally stable; in the second half of the month, the price has experienced a substantial reduction and a volatile decline. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of the month was 7880 yuan / ton, and 7240 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 8.12%. During the Spring Festival, the high price of this month is 7890 yuan / ton from February 2 to February 6; the low price of this month is 7180 yuan / ton on February 26 and 27, with a monthly amplitude of 9.00%.
In March, domestic propylene (Shandong) fell and rose sharply, then fell again. Propylene market fell sharply in the first half of the month, with an amplitude of more than 10%; after the price stabilized in the second half of the month, it consolidated again and fell. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of the month was 7290 yuan / ton, and 6995 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 4.05%. The high price of this month is 7300 yuan / ton on March 18; the low price of this month is 6630 yuan / ton on March 9 and 10, with a monthly amplitude of 10.11%.
In April, domestic propylene (Shandong) rose first and then walked out of the trend of concussion and decline. In the first half of the month, the propylene market rose and then stabilized. In the second half of the month, the price began to decline and fluctuate, but the overall range was not large. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 6991 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 6885 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 1.52%. The high price of this month is 7238 yuan / ton on April 10; the low price of this month is 6806 yuan / ton on April 29, with a monthly amplitude of 5.97%.
In May, domestic propylene (Shandong) first rose rapidly and then suddenly fell to a low point, then rose steadily and then remained stable. In the first ten days of May, there was an obvious peak trend of propylene market; in the middle and last ten days, it began to rise in shock and stabilized to the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 6942 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7365 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 6.09%. The low price of this month is 6840 yuan / ton on May 12; the high price of this month is 7365 yuan / ton on May 29-31, with a monthly amplitude of 7.68%.
In June, the price of domestic propylene (Shandong) rose in a ladder like manner after falling. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7296 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7665 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 5.06%. The monthly low price is 7035 yuan / ton on June 6 and 7, and the monthly high price is 7668 yuan / ton on June 28 and 29, with a monthly amplitude of 9.00%.
The market price of propylene fluctuated frequently in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7669 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, 7977 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.01%. This month’s low price is 7652 yuan / ton on July 20 and 21; this month’s high price is 8263 yuan / ton on July 11 and 12, with a monthly amplitude of 7.40%.
In August, the market price of propylene decreased and fluctuated frequently, with three peaks and troughs in total. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7979 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7596 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 4.79%. The high price of this month is 7981 yuan / ton on August 2; the low price of this month is 7435 yuan / ton on August 19, with a monthly amplitude of 6.84%.
In September, the market price of propylene rose sharply in the middle of the month, and the second half of the month saw two sharp falls. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the enterprise is 7596 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it is the monthly low price, 7531 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 0.86%. The high price of this month appeared on September 17, which was 8004 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%.
The market price of propylene fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the enterprise was 7488 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was the monthly low price, 7261 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 3.04%. The high price of this month was 7566 yuan / ton on October 15 and 16, with a monthly amplitude of 4.02%.
The market price of propylene fluctuated in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7184 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (November 29), the average price of enterprises was 7035 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 2.08%. The high price of this month is 7399 yuan / ton on November 13 and 14; the low price of this month is 6995 yuan / ton on November 28; the monthly amplitude is 5.46%.
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In December, the propylene market was stable after a sharp fall, and then fell again at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average enterprise price is the monthly high price, at 7095 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, the average enterprise price (December 25) is the monthly low price, at 6648 yuan / ton, the monthly drop is 6.31%.
On the whole, in 2019, the price of domestic propylene market fluctuated frequently, but the overall situation declined, from the high price at the beginning of the year to the low price at the end of the year. In 2019, the domestic propylene production capacity increased significantly, and the supply side was relatively loose, which had a greater negative impact on the propylene market.
Industry chain: upstream, several major events occurred in crude oil in 2019, which affected international crude oil production and had a positive impact on propylene in a certain period of time. On the other hand, the OPEC + meeting at the end of the year delayed the agreement on production reduction and strengthened the impact. After the rise of international crude oil, it began to rise steadily, but with a small range, which also played a role in raising propylene. However, OPEC + has delayed production reduction and the strengthening degree has been heard for a long time, and the good has been digested, so the good for propylene market is limited.
Downstream, the performance of polypropylene market in 2019 is a typical imbalance between supply and demand, with an annual decline of 14.65%. The expansion of capacity growth has reached its highest since 2010. And this capacity expansion is expected to continue until 2021, and PP capacity will be in the stage of rapid expansion for a long time. In addition, the foreign trade of rubber and plastic industry in China is blocked to some extent, and the competition between domestic polymerization plants will be more and more fierce. At the same time, the upstream propylene market is volatile, which has limited support for PP. The follow-up of the growth of the downstream demand side cannot smooth the rapid expansion of domestic production capacity. Therefore, the business club believes that in 2019, PP fundamentals are long and short, and the market is weak and volatile in terms of results. In the next two years, with the release of supply side pressure from new capacity, PP industry may be more difficult.
In 2019, acrylic acid rebounded after a downward shock. On January 1, the average price of domestic acrylic acid enterprises was 8550 yuan / ton. As of December 24, the average price of domestic acrylic acid enterprises was 8133.33 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year decline of 4.87%. The highest point in the year is 8800 yuan / ton on April 16, and the lowest point in the year is 6900 yuan / ton on November 6, with a maximum amplitude of 21.59%.
In 2019, the market of propylene oxide fluctuated mainly. On January 1, the average price of domestic propylene oxide enterprises was 11150 yuan / ton. As of December 24, the average price of domestic propylene oxide enterprises was 10300 yuan / ton, with a decline of 7.62% and an annual amplitude of 18.24%. In 2019, the maximum average price of propylene oxide is 11150 yuan / ton, and the minimum average price is 9116.67 yuan / ton. In 2019, the maximum price difference of propylene oxide is 2033.33 yuan / ton.
However, due to the tight supply, the market price of epichlorohydrin will fluctuate upward in 2019. As of December 24, the average market price of epichlorohydrin was 13900 yuan / ton. Compared with 10650 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the year, the quoted price increased by 3250 yuan / ton, or 30.52%, with an annual amplitude of 86.54%.
In 2019, the market of n-butanol was constantly fluctuating, but the overall market price at the end of the first year seemed to be stable, with an annual decline of 2.96% and an annual amplitude of 18.31%.
In 2019, octanol prices rose and fell, with an annual decline of 12.71% and an annual amplitude of 16.77%. The future market makers mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.
In 2019, the phenol Market is really difficult, with an annual decline of 14.56% and an annual amplitude of 21.02%. Although the demand is general at present, although the port has arrived, it is still in a balance state of about 30000 tons, without a significant increase. In addition, both the import cost and the domestic production cost have reached the critical value, and the market is difficult to go up, but there is limited space for going down. It’s hard to make a big adjustment before the festival.
The acetone market in 2019 is very addictive, falling below 3000 and rising to 6000. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, at the beginning of the year, manufacturers in East China made an offer of 3900 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 41.4% up to 5512 yuan / ton; the lowest price was 2900 yuan / ton on April 5, and the highest price was 5962 yuan / ton on November 27, with a maximum amplitude of 105%.
In 2019, the price of isopropanol in the domestic market fluctuated significantly, with an annual decline of 5.75% and an annual amplitude of 58.27%. The supply-demand relationship was greatly adjusted. Compared with 2018, the domestic demand decreased by nearly 120000 tons, but the export volume increased by 95000 tons. Secondly, the strength of environmental protection and security inspection is not reduced, and the downstream operating rate is relatively low. The rise of raw materials is also the main reason for price fluctuations.
3、 Future forecast
According to the propylene analyst of business and social chemical branch, in general, the propylene production capacity will increase more in 2019, the supply will be more abundant, and the market will fluctuate and decline. The crude oil incident and OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement were delayed and strengthened. The international crude oil was consolidated at a high level, but the news has been digested and absorbed, with limited increase in the later period; the downstream overall support was insufficient, and the profit margin was narrowed. But recently, it is reported that the overhaul of PDH manufacturers in East China and North China may have a slight positive impact on propylene market. And the increase in port arrivals has a certain negative effect. It is expected that the market price of propylene will fluctuate in the near future.
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