1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on January 17, the domestic phosphorus ore market was weak and stable. In several sample areas, the comprehensive average price of the initial and high-end phosphorus ore was around 403 yuan / ton. Compared with that in winter (November 1), the price decreased by 20 yuan / ton, down 4.72%, and the price was basically stable compared with that half a month ago (January 1). On January 17, the phosphorus ore commodity index was 74.01, unchanged from yesterday, 37.17% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 117.80 (2012-07-09), and 44.04% higher than the lowest point, 51.38 on December 24, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the pace of the Spring Festival in 2020 is getting closer. In this winter, the domestic phosphorus ore market is generally weak. On November 7, the market of phosphorus ore fell slightly. Some mines in Guizhou began to limit production and protect prices. The operation rate of the mines was controlled and prices were maintained. In early December, the market of phosphorus ore was affected by the depressed atmosphere of the downstream Yellow Phosphorus industry chain, and the market demand has never been boosted The price of high and middle grade phosphate ore was lowered again in the sub mine. The weak market has been stable up to now. As of January 17, the phosphate ore market has been running steadily, with light market trading and sporadic replenishment in the downstream. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the demand for phosphate ore market in Guizhou is in a low state, with 30% of the price of phosphate ammonium ore car plate around 320-360 yuan / ton; the phosphate ore market in Yunnan is running Stable, 28% of the price of ammonium phosphate ore truck in Yunnan is 270-290 yuan / ton; the price of 30% of the grade of phosphate ore in Guangxi is 325-360 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on January 17, the domestic yellow phosphorus market basically stopped trading, with sporadic replenishment in the downstream and relatively light on-site trading. In Guizhou yellow phosphorus market, the current mainstream transaction price is about 17000-17200 yuan / ton; in Yunnan, the mainstream price is about 16400 yuan / ton; in Sichuan, the mainstream price is about 17000 yuan / ton. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises have basically stopped trading, and the operating rate has declined for the second time. According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the yellow phosphorus trading will gradually decrease until the end of the year, and the price reference is not significant. At present, yellow phosphorus driving is common in all regions, and the recent focus is on the market start-up after the Spring Festival.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on January 16, 2020, there are 14 kinds of commodities in the price up and down list of bulk 58, which are concentrated in the non-ferrous (7 kinds) and energy (3 kinds), and the top three commodities are nickel (2.11%), PA6 (2.11%) and liquefied natural gas (1.30%). There are 11 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, focusing on textile (2 kinds in total) and building materials (2 kinds in total). The first three commodities decreased were WTI crude oil (- 0.72%), lint (- 0.49%) and caustic soda (- 0.43%). The average price of this day is 0.14%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, at present, the phosphorus ore market is expected to remain relatively stable before the festival, and the market fluctuation will not be too large.