Commodity index: on February 21, 2020, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019
Price: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on February 1, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market is about 15933.33 yuan / ton, and on February 21, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market is 15933.33 yuan / ton, which is stable.
Industrial chain:
Upstream: from January to February 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market will be lowered. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times during the period; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the last ten days, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; on February 21, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton, which was decreased by 1100 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 10.38%. It is reported that at present, the effective capacity of acrylonitrile in China is 2.249 million tons / year, and the production starts are stable during the Spring Festival, with an average operating rate of 96%. According to statistics, the current price of acrylonitrile is not the lowest since September 2016.
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Downstream: during the Spring Festival holiday, the water treatment engineering construction enterprises are strictly controlled to return to work. At present, they advocate orderly return to work, and the demand will gradually increase in the future.
Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, has continued to stop production so far. The manufacturer claims that the inventory is relatively sufficient, the current demand continues to be low season, the procurement is weak, and the manufacturer’s quotation is in a stable state.
Industry:
1. In late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after scheduling or acceptance according to the office.
2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.
3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.
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4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from that day to January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.
5. In 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production areas in China stopped production in the holiday mode and superimposed the special situation in China. The application for resumption of work is strictly approved. The manufacturers in the main production areas in Henan have not started production so far.
Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the manufacturers in Henan Province continue to stop production and stop work, there is no problem in the inventory, and the resumption of construction enterprises needs to be carried out gradually in the later stage; the current price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile continues to decrease, which has reached the lowest price in four years, and the subsequent production cost of polyacrylamide will decrease with it. From the current factors, the market of polyacrylamide is not unusual.
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