1. Trade name: silicon metal (441#)

2. Latest price (March 30, 2020): 11625 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11100-11300 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 11400-11600 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 12000-12200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 11700-119300 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu is 11600-118100 yuan/ Tons.

3. Analysis points:

In China, the supply side is still low, the silicon plant in Xinjiang reduced production from February to March, and started at a low level, with a slight decline in monthly output on a month on month basis; the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are not high, although the number of furnace openings in Nujiang River in Yunnan increased slightly on a month on month basis, but concentrated in the late March; some small-scale manufacturers in Fujian and southern Hunan resumed production, with small capacity. Overall, the domestic operating rate in March was about 30%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. It is reported that the current social inventory decreased nearly 30% year on year.

Domestic downstream organosilicon monomer and aluminum alloy industry chain transmission due to poor expectation of industrial chain terminal and market expectation of production reduction effect, cast pessimistic expectation on silicon metal consumption. Polysilicon has the highest operating rate in the three downstream, and the market has a good expectation of starting photovoltaic installation at the end of the second quarter. Generally speaking, although the supply and demand in the domestic market are declining, the price is dominated by panic sentiment, and the willingness of traders to store goods is reduced.

On the foreign side, the spread of foreign epidemic will affect more downstream enterprises and reduce foreign demand. According to customs data, from January to February 2020, the export volume of silicon metal was 95000 tons, down 9.4% year on year.

4. Future forecast: it is expected that the short-term operation of silicon metal will be weak.