1、 Price trend:

In February 2020, the hydrogenated benzene market fell in shock. The factory price in North China was 5533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 5133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 7.23%.

At March 31, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 38.63, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 62.13% lower than the highest point of 102.01 on January 9, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: this month, the domestic pure benzene market was affected by the sharp drop in crude oil price, and the pure benzene market continued to decline. The listing price of Sinopec pure benzene in this month was reduced by 2750 yuan to 2600 yuan / ton in total. The hydrobenzene market continued to decline, with high cost pressure, and the unit’s operating rate continued to decline this month. Some units that had been shut down earlier did not resume work as scheduled this month. The downstream demand has not improved, and the commencement of styrene plant has decreased. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of hydrobenzene in Shandong was about 2500-2600 yuan / ton, 2400-2500 yuan / ton lower than last month.

Industry chain: crude oil: in this month, Russia refused to further reduce production, and Saudi Arabia substantially reduced the official price of crude oil in April, and announced that it increased its crude oil production in April, which opened a deep decline in international oil prices. In the later period, due to the continuous impact of overseas social public events, the world introduced measures to restrict travel, which severely hit oil demand. People predict that global oil demand will drop by more than 10 million barrels per day, and the market is worried about the oversupply of crude oil. Although the governments of many countries have launched economic stimulus plans, the economic activities and fuel demand of many countries are expected to further reduce, and the worry about the sharp decrease of oil demand dominates. Compared with February 28, Brent oil price fell by 32.815 USD / barrel, or 64.99%; WTI oil price fell by 20.43 USD / barrel, or 45.46%. Pure benzene: with the resumption of domestic production in March, the overall operating rate of pure benzene picked up. Although domestic public events have been effectively controlled, large-scale outbreaks abroad have led to a sharp decline in crude oil and related energy chemicals. The downstream demand is weak, and the release of pure benzene capacity is blocked; in addition, the external market plummeted, and the low price hit, and the domestic pure benzene fell seriously. However, crude oil is low in price, with less cost constraints and profit margin. This month Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene seven times, a total of 2750 yuan / ton. Pure benzene, as a product greatly affected by crude oil, has a significant downward trend. The arrival of pure benzene increased this month, and the port inventory accumulated significantly. Downstream products: affected by the demand terminal, the market of downstream products is weak, the overall operating rate of the enterprise is declining, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the price of downstream products is generally down. At the beginning of the month, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was 6700 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, it was 4650 yuan / ton, down 2050 yuan / ton, down 30.6%. The price of aniline was 6666.67 yuan / ton on the first day and 5633.33 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.5%. The price of phenol in China was 7062.5 yuan / ton on the first day and 5387.5 yuan / ton on the 31st day, a decrease of 23.72%. The price of adipic acid in East China was 8080 yuan / ton on the first day and 6480 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.35%. The price of Shandong caprolactam was 10633.33 yuan / ton on the first day and 9000 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.36%.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Trend Forecast:

Saudi Arabia and Russia may increase crude oil production in April, further affecting oil prices. Oil prices remain low in the short term. But in the later stage, once the social public events are effectively controlled and production resumes, the oil price may have the opportunity to return to the level of the year before. Foreign pure benzene enters China, and low price supply continues to impact the domestic market. The downtrend of some downstream products is stronger than that of pure benzene, with limited support for pure benzene; the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises has declined, the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and it is expected that the hydrogenation benzene market will be dominated by low consolidation in the short term.