1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 of calcium carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on April 15 was 5712.5 yuan / ton, up 4.82% from the beginning of the month, down 15.46% from the same period last year On April 15, the PVC commodity index was 72.39, up 0.16 points from yesterday, down 27.61% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 24.23% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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Spot: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of April 15, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5550-5800 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5450-5550 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is around 5430-5530 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 5500-5550 yuan / ton.
Futures: pvcv2009 contract rose and fell, closing at 5435 yuan / ton, 15 yuan higher than the previous trading day; trading volume was 210218, – 72527; positions were 206435, + 2038, base difference was 25 yuan, + 0 yuan; 5-9 price difference was 40 yuan, – 5 yuan.
2、 Market analysis
Products: PVC futures fell below 5000 in late March, with low prices, pessimistic attitude of the industry. Spot price of PVC fell simultaneously, and the profits of the manufacturers decreased significantly. After the return of the Qingming Festival, the domestic PVC market ushered in a turning point, and the price went up frequently for several consecutive days. This increase is mainly due to the positive impact of cost end crude oil and futures, because PVC market has a strong financial attribute, and the upward trend of futures drives the rise of PVC; at the same time, downstream demand has a certain recovery. After the end of the holiday, downstream factories replenish a certain amount of goods. In addition, PVC enterprises have entered the maintenance state in spring, market output has decreased, social inventory has declined, and manufacturers have a strong mentality of boosting, Multiple positive signals support PVC price rising. Due to the impact of public health events, domestic and foreign demand is not good, the export of PVC products and raw materials has been affected to some extent, and PVC prices are under normal pressure. Recently, PVC futures have risen sharply. At present, PVC has been rising for several days in a row, and now it has become stable. The manufacturers are willing to hold up the price strongly, while the downstream replenishment is appropriate, the trading is cautious, the actual transaction in the market is slightly low, the operators are calm and wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that there will still be a risk of falling in the future.
Demand side: according to the exchange, PVC industry accumulates inventory before and after the Spring Festival, and the market enters the off-season. After the festival, downstream product industry starts in succession, and the market gradually recovers vitality. This year, affected by public health events, the resumption of work in the lower reaches was delayed, and the construction started in April. The export of PVC downstream products is mainly floor, hard pipe, profile and sheet film, but most of the export volume is small, only the export volume of floor products is large, at present, the order is not high, the export is temporarily blocked, and more domestic sales. In the downstream industry, the real estate pipe industry is better, and the demand and start-up of medical protective equipment manufacturers are better. On the whole, the demand side is lack of follow-up at home and abroad.
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Supply end: in the first quarter, PVC production was on the high side, with abundant supply and high sales pressure. In the second quarter, PVC manufacturers mostly entered the spring maintenance season, and the starting load of some enterprises was reduced to a certain extent. With the increase of maintenance enterprises in the future, the output was reduced, and the social inventory was gradually reduced, which is expected to ease the current situation of oversupply, which is good for PVC. The following is the maintenance status of some enterprises:
Industrial chain: on April 14, the international oil price fell again, and WTI crude oil in the United States was 20.11 yuan / barrel, down $2.30 (- 10.26%). Brent crude fell $2.14 (- 6.74%) to $29.60 per barrel. The main reason is that OPEC + and other oil producing countries’ production reduction agreements disappointed the market, the share of production reduction is difficult to offset the decline of fuel demand caused by the new crown epidemic, and the U.S. crude oil inventory increased significantly than expected, which increased the market panic atmosphere. Due to the increasingly serious public health events in foreign countries and the sharp decline in oil demand, which may lead to a sharp contraction in economic activities and cannot support the price of ethylene, analysts of business data expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow decline in the future. In the middle of April, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, the cost support is not enough, the price of PVC in the downstream is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is low. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall slightly in mid April.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are six commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on April 15, 2020, among which the top three commodities are HDPE (3.63%), LDPE (0.64%) and polybutadiene rubber (0.63%). There are 0 goods falling month on month. The average price of this day is 0.33%.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club think: PVC futures are quite volatile at present. After several days of continuous rise, the spot market began to stabilize. Most of the operators hold a wait-and-see attitude and lack of upward momentum. Some enterprises began to make a correction in their quotations. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term is mainly consolidation.
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