1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on April 20 was 8800 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on April 26 was 8566 yuan / ton, with the weekly price dropping by 2.65%.

On April 26, the caprolactam commodity index was 43.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 56.91% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and up 9.37% from the lowest point of 39.40 on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: caprolactam prices fell this week. The raw material market is not good, the supply increases, and the downstream demand weakens. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8100 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 8950 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 8775 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 8775 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industry chain: this week, pure benzene returned to a weak position, and the price fell continuously in the week. On April 19, the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3900 yuan / ton (average price of 3350 yuan / ton), and on April 26, the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3500 yuan / ton (average price of 3170 yuan / ton), down 5.37% compared with last week. This week, the price of PA6 in China fell. Despite last week’s rise due to the positive cost side, this week’s resumption of production in the polymerization plant began to show the effect. Supply is on the rise and social inventory is on the rise. In addition, the downstream mainly adopts the strategy of just need replenishment, with less consumption. The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acetone (10.26%), acetic acid (8.14%) and ethanol (3.33%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 14.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are hydrochloric acid (- 29.76%), crude benzene (- 17.03%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 12.35%). This week’s average was – 1.76%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that this week’s raw material pure benzene fell, the cost of negative. In the near future, the maintenance of the unit will be restarted gradually, and the supply of caprolactam will increase. Downstream demand decreased, prices began to fall, manufacturers lack of confidence. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam will be the main in the later stage.