1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 11475 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 12000 yuan / ton, with a 4.58% increase in the price within the week. The price was 8.60% higher than that of the same period last month and 30.03% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: after the festival, the price of MDI market continued to rise slightly. The market was full of price rising atmosphere, but the transaction surface was cold. On the supply side, weekly guidance prices of Cisco and Ryanair continued to rise, and the supply of goods was tight; the main factories in the north also actively released good news. The market learned that the guidance price for direct customers of some factories was also raised, and the low price disappeared. Generally speaking, there is a “rising voice” in supply. The price of imported goods in US dollars rose slightly, and the operation load of devices in Japan and South Korea was not high. The whole month saw supply or reduction.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose this week. After the festival, the price of pure benzene in East China rose, driven by the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday. The spot price is 3450-3500 yuan / ton. After that, affected by the decline of crude oil and the weakness of styrene futures price, the market’s rising sentiment weakened, and the intention to purchase spot goods was insufficient, and the center of gravity weakened to 3320-3360 yuan / ton.

Aniline: during the festival, the aniline market fell and ran smoothly after the festival. From the aspect of raw materials, after the festival, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene increased by 200 yuan to 3000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene rose to 3400 yuan / ton driven by the rise of crude benzene. The bidding price of Jinling pure benzene increased by 190 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival, and the support of cost aspect was enhanced. During the festival, a 100000 ton aniline plant in Nanhua was restarted, the market supply increased, and the aniline factory delivered generally, and the inventory kept accumulating. In order to promote the delivery, the price was slightly reduced by 200 yuan / ton. After the festival, the raw material of pure benzene rose sharply, and the profit of aniline decreased. Downstream enterprises were afraid of the raw material of pure benzene to promote the rise of aniline. Therefore, there were more purchases, and the shipment of aniline factory was acceptable, the inventory pressure was relieved, and the price was stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business point of view: the inquiry mood of downstream customers in the distribution market slightly changed, compared with the increase of inquiry before the festival. However, restricted by abundant inventory, small order purchase is the main thing. It is expected that the weekly guidance price manufacturers will continue to increase slightly next week, and the main supplier factories will still help. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic market price of MDI will be stable and wait for the change of market turnover.