1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 6 was 8533 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 9 was 9066 yuan / ton, with the price rising 6.25% this week. On May 9, the caprolactam commodity index was 45.60, unchanged from yesterday, 54.40% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 15.74% higher than the lowest point, 39.40, on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: caprolactam rose due to tight spot supply. As of the end of this week, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9600 yuan / ton, cash was delivered, and the manufacturer’s capacity was 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 9000 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 9100 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industrial chain: this week, the domestic pure benzene market has a stronger focus, boosted by the rise of crude oil and foreign market. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene twice this week, with a total increase of 350 yuan / ton to 3100 yuan / ton. The listing price of pure benzene on Wednesday was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price 2960 yuan / ton); the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene on Wednesday (6th) was increased by 200 yuan / ton, and the listing price of domestic pure benzene was increased by 2950-3500 yuan / ton (average price 3120 yuan / ton); the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene on Saturday (9th) was increased by 150 yuan / ton, and the listing price of domestic pure benzene was increased by 3100-3500 yuan / ton (average price 3270 yuan / ton).

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there are 37 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 17 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 19.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are trichloromethane (17.86%), crude benzene (14.59%) and phenol (11.04%). There are 29 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are R22 (- 10.10%), isopropanol (- 8.93%) and fluorite (- 6.83%). This week’s average was 0.97%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of the business club believe that this week, the domestic supply of caprolactam is tight, there is less spot, and the enterprises are active in price hike. In addition, the price of caprolactam continues to rise. Due to the shutdown or planned shutdown of some enterprises, the later supply is still insufficient, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to be strong in the short term.