1、 Price trend

The domestic butadiene market was weak and fell. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 4301 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the week was 4184 yuan / ton, down 2.71% in the week. The price rose 8.19% month on month and 51.10% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market was weak and fell. Under the pressure of supply, the market atmosphere was short. At the end of the month, the export sales of northeast manufacturers increased, but the inventory of downstream raw materials remained high, poor transaction dragged down the price of suppliers, intensified market bearish expectations, and further dragged down the market. In the week, the external quotation rose slightly, which supported the mentality of some merchants in East China. However, the ship arrived at the port abundantly. At the same time, under the pressure of the decline in the north, the downstream inquiry intention was low, and the market trading was relatively stagnant.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China is stable at 4500 yuan / ton; Liaotong Chemical Co., Ltd. has 338 tons of supplies for online auction and sales, with the base price reduced by 400 yuan / ton to 3510 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, and the total turnover is 182 tons; Fushun Petrochemical’s supply of goods is restarted for export, with the price at 3500 yuan / ton and the turnover at 450 tons; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton / year butadiene plant is recovering within the week, with the listing price at 3780 yuan / ton; 70000 tons / year butadiene plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia was restarted, with the quotation of 3700 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: this week, the mainstream factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber has not been adjusted, and the market offer range has declined. Businesses offer around the supply price, while the inquiry is lower than the range, and the trading atmosphere is cold.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable, the market offer is constantly falling, the inverted price is frequent, the trading atmosphere is becoming lighter, and the real deal is becoming increasingly stalemate. Within the week, Maoming and Haopu Shunding units continued to shut down, Yangzi Shunding units were restarted one after another, other mainstream Shunding units were in normal operation, and Wanda and other units were in normal operation after restart, so the stock market was still abundant.

 
3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the external market rose slightly, and the main downstream industries started relatively high. On the negative side, the northern spot export increase, Shenhua Ningshan coal plant may be restarted in advance, and there are plenty of ships arriving at the port. Under the condition that the supply and demand fundamentals are difficult to be improved significantly, butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term, with low-end consolidation as the main factor, and the market price range is 3500-3800 yuan / ton