According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market has been active since June, and the spot market price has continued to rise. As of June 22, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13300.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.98% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

In all upstream aspects of ABS, in June, the mainstream price of styrene in China fluctuated. According to the monitoring of the business club, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell slightly last week, from Friday of the second week to the beginning of the third week, and then to the weekend. On June 12, the price of sample enterprises of business agency was 5550.00 yuan / ton, and on June 15, the price was about 5383.33 yuan / ton. As of June 19, the price of sample enterprises was 5483.33 yuan / ton, down 1.20%. The price is 39.63% lower than the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the oversupply situation has not changed in the short term, and the mainstream inventory is still high. Total inventory in East China this week was 379700 tons, up 4.46%. At present, the arrival cargo volume is too large, and it is expected that the inventory volume in East China reservoir area will still rise in the near future. In the short term, the storage capacity of the warehouse is tight, and the pressure of spot selling continues to increase due to the further increase of regional security inspection, epidemic prevention and storage freight. With the sharp rise of ethylene price in the week, the cash flow of domestic styrene plants further compressed, and some plants entered the stage of loss, and the plan of load reduction for parking was initially realized. The demand of colleagues’ downstream end is optimistic and the operating rate is expected to remain high next week. In terms of raw materials, the trend of crude oil in the near future has fluctuated, with weak consolidation. Last week, pure benzene upstream of styrene fell. The trend of crude oil, ethylene and pure benzene has a great impact on the trend of styrene. It is expected that the trend of styrene will be dominated by weak shocks next week, and the market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price;

In recent years, the market performance of acrylonitrile in China is not good. At present, the operating rate of domestic production enterprises has increased, and the market is expected to be oversupplied. Carefully prepare the goods downstream and take them as you use them. The demand is not strong, the mentality of businesses is hit, the actual trading is less, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to be weak;

The domestic butadiene market has been weak recently. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, as of June 22, the price of the domestic butadiene market was 3456.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.51% compared with the beginning of the month. Recently, the performance of the external market is stagnant, and the maintenance of some devices is gradually over, so it is difficult for the market supply to have a positive boost. The downstream operating rate is temporarily at a high level, and the demand is supported by the market bottom. Butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak in the short term, and suggest that they pay attention to the guidance of internal and external trading;

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable. Last month, the relevant provisions of the “one helmets and one belt” safety guard action still have good effects on stimulating helmet consumption. Therefore, the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China is almost full load operation, and the industry operating rate is nearly 98%. The existing inventory is still at a low level, and the lack of spot circulation in the market is the driving force to support the firm price of the merchants. At present, the interest yield intention is relatively low. The demand of downstream factories decreased, and the follow-up of actual orders decreased.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: the ABS market level in the third week of June, the prices of various brands are high. Cost side of the upstream three material recent trend up and down, the cost of general support. At present, ABS spot supply is still less, the downstream of ABS high price goods have resistance. At present, merchants have a stable mentality and limited margin of profit. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to be stronger in the near future.