1、 Price trend
In June, the domestic LNG market showed a steady rising rhythm in the first ten days, and began to decline after the middle ten days, with little price change this month. According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on June 24 was 2473.33 yuan / ton, up 0.13% compared with the beginning of the month, and down 26.32% compared with the same period last year.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Good maintenance to support domestic LNG start to rise
In June, the decline of domestic LNG slowed down and rebounded slightly. Since June 15, the pipeline maintenance of the fifth processing plant of CNPC has also affected the production of some liquid plants. Moreover, due to the low price of domestic LNG, some enterprises have entered the maintenance stage ahead of time due to cost considerations, As a result, in June, most of the maintenance enterprises reduced their production and boosted the market. After continuous price reduction and sales, the inventory pressure was eased, and the delivery situation was improved. The liquid factory took advantage of the situation to push up tentatively. On the whole, the overhaul tide of the liquid plant injected vitality into the sluggish domestic LNG market, and the liquid price stopped falling and rebounded. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of LNG on June 11 was 2503.33 yuan / ton, 1.35% higher than 2470 yuan / ton at the beginning of June. Restricted by the consumption season, the increase was not significant.
Negative air around domestic LNG overall decline
The favorable support brought by the maintenance tide is limited, the demand is reduced in the off-season of consumption, and the added breath is greatly used for profit promotion. The shipping schedule is tight, the battle between land and sea is becoming more and more fierce, the domestic liquid plants are not successful in supporting the market, the upward path of LNG is fleeting, and it will continue to decline after the short-term stability in the middle of the year. Recently, the environmental protection problem is serious, the domestic liquid factory’s shipment has been restrained to a certain extent, and the price is under pressure. Close to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, high-speed traffic restrictions, liquid factory price reduction clear inventory strong psychology, it is expected that liquid price is difficult to have upward expectations.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of June 24, the average price of domestic LNG is 2480 yuan / ton, the price in Inner Mongolia is around 2460-2500 yuan / ton, the price in Shaanxi is around 2480 yuan / ton, the price in Shanxi is around 2460 yuan / ton, the price in Xinjiang is around 2550-3800 yuan / ton, and the rise and fall of liquid prices in various regions are mutually increasing.
The figure above shows the natural gas import volume from 2019 to 2020, showing the stable growth of natural gas import. In May, 7.84 million tons of natural gas were imported. From January to may, China imported 40.12 million tons of natural gas, an increase of 1.9% over the same period last year. The average import price was 2642.1 yuan per ton, down 14.7%. Because China’s natural gas consumption is relatively large, domestic gas can not be fully replenished, but also depends on a large number of imports. As a kind of clean energy, natural gas has gradually become an essential energy in the industrial field, people’s life and public service. At present, the price of imported gas is low, which constantly impacts the domestic LNG market. Under the pressure of supply exceeding demand, domestic LNG is in a difficult situation.
At present, the production of dichloromethane is at a high level, and the spot market supply is sufficient. However, the demand in the downstream market is weak, and the situation that the market supply exceeds the demand is gradually emerging. In order to prevent the increase of the future market pressure, the enterprises will immediately yield profits for shipment, and the competitive sales among enterprises is obvious. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate in a weak position in a short period of time, with limited space for downward adjustment.
Liquid ammonia, some urea plants in Shandong are difficult to recover in the near future, and the liquid ammonia will remain high. Affected by the market demand backlog, the shipments in the surrounding market are still under pressure. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia will remain relatively low in the near future. In the near future, we should pay attention to the news that the urea plant of Shandong enterprises is properly restored. It is expected that if the plant of the enterprise is stable, the price of liquid ammonia may rebound.
Urea, the recent start-up of enterprises still slightly fell, the market supply is relatively sufficient. In North and central China, wheat harvest season has come to the end, and agricultural demand has declined slightly. The procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is more cautious. They usually purchase as needed, use as they choose, and follow up as appropriate. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 1630 yuan / ton.
Domestic LNG may continue to decline due to limited demand in off-season
According to the LNG analyst of business club, the current market demand is limited in the off-season, the price reduction and promotion of liquid plants before the festival are obvious, the maintenance is good and the support is fading, and the domestic LNG market is expected to continue to decline in the short term.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |