1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic soda ash has increased. The average market price in East China is about 1400 yuan / ton, down 17.17% from the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on August 3 was 67.86, up 1.19 points compared with yesterday, 42.42% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 7.46% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the overall trend of domestic soda ash market has been rising steadily, and the price has fluctuated, with a one-day increase of 6.41% on August 3. Main reasons: the total inventory of No.1 soda ash decreased. In July, the domestic output of soda ash was 2.3097 million tons, with a quarter on month increase of 256600 tons. In July 2020, the overall operating rate of soda ash was 71.85%, with a month on month increase of 5.27%. The initial soda ash inventory was 1.251 million tons, 1.0233 million tons at the end of the month, and the inventory decreased by 226800 tons, or 18.14%. Clearing inventory is good, enterprise quotation increases. Second, the inventory of soda ash in the downstream float glass industry has increased. Recently, the terminal demand of glass spot market has increased steadily, and the orders of processing enterprises have also improved slightly. Production enterprises should take the initiative to pull prices in time to boost market confidence. The speed of purchasing glass by downstream processing enterprises has also improved slightly compared with that of other processing enterprises, so as to be used for later processing. Generally speaking, with the gradual weakening of rainfall and high temperature weather, the traditional sales peak season will come, and the prices of production enterprises will continue to rise slightly. Third, in the spirit of the soda ash industry meeting at the end of July, the price of soda ash was raised in August. Light soda increased by 150 yuan / ton and heavy soda increased by 300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that: for soda ash enterprises to adjust prices downstream procurement is not active, preferred procurement. At the level of market mentality, enterprises have a strong mentality of price increase, and some enterprises control delivery or sealing orders. The overall shipment of traders is general, the purchase price has no advantage, the shipment is light, the support of old customers, and the new orders are few. In addition, the price of early order is low and the shipment is smooth. After the price was announced, the market volume was not optimistic, the downstream conflicted, kept a wait-and-see attitude, mainly implemented the early orders, less new orders. However, in fact, the market atmosphere of soda ash enterprises is light, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the purchase on demand is the main factor. It is predicted that the price of soda ash in the short term will tend to be rational and maintain stable operation.