Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on August 27 was 34.18, up 0.15 points compared with yesterday, 65.82% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 25.29% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in the first half of August 2020

As can be seen from the trend chart of the first half of the month in Figure 2, the quotation on August 1 was 10860 yuan / ton, and that on the 15th was 11017.5 yuan / ton, with an increase rate of 1.45%; the highest point in the first half of the month was about 11132 yuan / ton on the 7th, and the lowest point was 10822 yuan / ton on the third day, with the maximum amplitude of 2.86%.

Figure 3: price trend of natural rubber from the second half of August 2020 to now

As shown in Figure 3, the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency shows that the mainstream price of Baodao whole milk market was about 11017.5 yuan / ton on August 16, and 11587.5 yuan / ton on August 28, with an increase of 5.17% in the past half month. Among them, the highest point in the second half of the month is 11587.5 yuan / ton on 27 days, and the lowest is 11017.5 yuan / ton on 16 days. The maximum amplitude is also 5.17%.

Among many factors, the delay of new rubber and the shortage of spot rubber are the biggest factors leading to the rise of natural rubber market this month. In 2020, due to the special situation, epidemic situation, weather and other factors, the opening time of Southeast Asia production area was delayed, the release of raw material production was slow, and the rubber production was greatly affected, so the annual production reduction was inevitable. The market expects that the supply side of Southeast Asia will not increase indefinitely in the third and fourth quarters. At the same time, the amount of new rubber in Hainan and Yunnan production areas in China is not optimistic so far. Local traders say that the rubber warehouses in Kunming and Banna of Yunnan Province are basically empty, and the shortage of goods continues.

Spot glue is in short supply, which coincides with the golden nine silver ten traditional sales peak season. In recent months, the operating rate continued to rise slightly, and it is expected that the tire industry in the third quarter will be improved to some extent. At present, some enterprises have attracted the tide of price rise. In the context of economic recovery, downstream demand is gradually warming. According to a number of data, the warming of the automobile industry will bring about a sustained growth in the downstream demand of natural rubber since the third quarter. Although the speed is relatively slow, the golden age, silver and ten are coming, and there are still strong expectations in the industry for the peak season of downstream demand.

In terms of the aftermarket, the traditional consumption peak season is coming, and the purchasing demand is enhanced. In addition, there is a shortage of domestic rubber and some imported rubber in many places, and the trend of natural rubber concussion is expected to continue. However, some of the natural rubber trade has not made much profit so far. The rise of natural rubber will not be a continuous big rise. The market has high expectations for “gold, silver and ten”, and keeps a cautious and long-term view Point.