Trend analysis

 

According to the data of business agency, the market performance of cobalt Market in October was cold, and the price of cobalt fluctuated and fell. As of October 20, the cobalt price was 269333.34 yuan / ton, down 1.94% from 274666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1).

 

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Domestic production and marketing of new energy vehicles

 

According to the data of CAAC, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 136000 and 138000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 48.0% and 67.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in September all broke the historical records in September. The market of new energy vehicles rose significantly, and it is expected that the demand for cobalt will recover in the future, which is good for the cobalt market.

 

Sales of new energy vehicles in Europe exceed expectations

 

According to the statistical data, in September, the registered number of new energy vehicles in the 10 mainstream countries in Europe totaled 141000, with a year-on-year growth of 165% and a month on month growth of 58%. In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe continued to increase on a month on month basis. The policy of new energy vehicles in Europe continued to increase. The trend of electrification is irreversible. It is expected to continue the boom in the fourth quarter.

 

Policies and regulations

 

On October 9, the national Standing Committee passed the new energy vehicle industry development plan, requiring that the proportion of new energy vehicles in the new public sector in the national ecological civilization experimental area and key areas of air pollution prevention and control should not be less than 80% from 2021. It is expected to promote domestic electric vehicle sales from the public sector. The state has increased the promotion of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial to the cobalt market.

 

On October 9, the European Union voted to raise the 2030 carbon emission reduction target from 40% to 60% compared with that in 1990 (the proposal in early September was 55%), which exceeded the expectation. The EU policy adjustment will accelerate the development of new energy vehicles, which will be beneficial to the future development of cobalt city.

 

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Tesla reduces prices again during National Day

 

During the national day, the domestic Tesla Model 3 will reduce its price again. This price reduction strategy of Tesla may further open up the Chinese market, and its “catfish effect” may drive the sales volume of China’s new energy vehicle market to rise sharply in the fourth quarter. The price reduction of new energy vehicles will increase the sales volume and increase the demand for cobalt market, which is good for the future cobalt market.

 

Market Overview

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the cobalt market showed a weak performance in October, while the price of cobalt fluctuated and fell. On the contrary, it was the performance of the new energy vehicle market. In terms of production and sales, in September, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the performance of new energy vehicles in Europe was far better than expected. During the national day, Tesla reduced its sales, which was beneficial to the new energy vehicle market, or stimulated a large increase in New energy vehicle sales in the fourth quarter. In terms of policies and regulations, in October, China launched the new energy vehicle industry development plan to promote new energy With the development of the automobile industry, the EU has also passed a proposal conducive to stimulating the development of new energy vehicles. The policy is favorable, which is obviously beneficial to the development of the new energy vehicle industry in the future. In the next three years, new energy vehicles will still be the development trend. In the face of such a hot new energy vehicle market, the price of cobalt fluctuated and fell in October, which deviated from the market of new energy vehicles. The main reason for this performance in cobalt market is that the sales volume of 3C products such as mobile phones declined significantly, the overall demand of cobalt market declined, and the negative pressure on cobalt price was greater.

 

Generally speaking, the demand of new energy vehicles for cobalt market is strong in the future, but 3C market is still weak under the influence of the epidemic situation. The overall demand of cobalt market is low, and the upward momentum of cobalt market is insufficient. However, with the promotion and online of vaccine, the impact of epidemic situation will gradually weaken, the sales volume of 3C market will recover, and the demand of cobalt market will have sufficient driving force. In the future, the short-term cobalt market is declining, and the rising power of cobalt price is insufficient; the long-term cobalt market has sufficient upward momentum, and with the promotion and online of vaccine, the cobalt market may usher in a short-term upsurge at the end of the year.

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