Recently, the domestic butadiene market has risen sharply, and Sinopec’s external quotation has been “rising for three consecutive days”. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, after the National Day (10.9), the average price of domestic butadiene producers was 6338 yuan / ton. As of today (10.22), the average price of domestic butadiene producers was 8176 yuan / ton, with an increase of 28.99% during the period. The price rose by 30.66% month on month and decreased by 21.65% year on year. The current price is still 1.64% lower than the highest price at the beginning of the year (8312 yuan / ton).
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The main reasons for the rise of butadiene price are as follows: first, the external price continued to rise; second, the main production enterprise Sinopec Sales Company raised the ex factory supply price for many times to drive the market; third, the shutdown and maintenance of Wuhan ethylene plant of some production enterprises affected social inventory; Fourth, the strong rise of natural rubber futures drove the price of downstream synthetic rubber products of butadiene High linkage.
First of all, looking at the external market, since July 2020, the closing prices of butadiene in Asia, Europe and the United States have been rising intermittently. By September 2020, the internal and external prices have risen for 12 days. In October, the closing price of the external market has risen for 12 days. On October 7 after the festival, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $795-805 / T, CFR China closed at US $795-805 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at 605-615 USD / T, up $10 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 475-485 euro / T, stable. As of yesterday’s (10.21) closing, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: FOB Korea closed at 935-945 US dollars / ton, up 50 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 945-955 US dollars / ton, up 55 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $635-645 / T, up US $10 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 495-505 EUR / T, stable.
Regional closing price on October 7, closing price on October 21
FOB South Korea: 795-805 USD / T 935-945 USD / T: 140 USD / T
CFR China $795-805 / T $945-955 / T $150 / T
FOB Rotterdam US $605-615 / T US $635-645 / T US $30 / T
FD northwest Europe 475-485 euro / ton 495-505 euro / ton 20 euro / ton
Secondly, since October 15, Sinopec’s sales companies have been increasing their external quotations by 7100 yuan / ton; on October 19, Sinopec’s sales companies have increased by 400 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton; on October 20, they have increased by 500 yuan / ton, and the price has been implemented by 8000 yuan / ton; on October 21, Sinopec’s external supply price has risen by 600 yuan / ton again, reaching 8600 yuan / ton. On October 20, the 130000 T / a ethylene plant of Sinopec central China sales company was shut down for maintenance. Northeast production enterprises have no foreign supply, heard that the current transaction is at a high price. The rising prices of manufacturers have prompted traders to follow suit. At present, traders are out of stock and waiting for price increase.
Adjustment of external supply price of butadiene in Sinopec production enterprises:
Price of enterprise on October 15 (yuan / ton) price on October 21 (yuan / ton) up and down (yuan / ton)
Zhenhai Refining & Chemical 7100 8600 1500
Sinopec Shanghai 7100 8600 1500
Yangzi Petrochemical 7100 8600 1500
Sinopec 7100 8600 1500
Maoming Petrochemical 7100 8600 1500
Guangzhou Petrochemical 7100 8600 1500
Wuhan ethylene 7100 8600 1500
Thirdly, affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene has increased significantly, and the good linkage of the whole industrial chain has promoted the butadiene market to rise again and again.
The latest price and fluctuation of synthetic rubber downstream of butadiene:
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Price of products on October 1 (yuan / ton) price on October 21 (yuan / ton) up and down (yuan / ton)
SBR: 9125.00-10241.67-12.2%
NBR: 15366.67-17100.00-11.28%
Polybutadiene rubber: 8900.00-10010.00-12.47%
Butadiene styrene and butadiene rubber market follow up, the actual price of butadiene styrene is higher than that of the domestic market.
For cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, the mainstream sales companies raised the price of styrene butadiene and cis-1,4-butadiene by 500-600 yuan / ton. The downstream end of the terminal has no high intention to take over the offer with wide price increase, and the actual single transaction is mainly concentrated in the trade link.
NBR and NBR operators are optimistic about NBR, and the inventory of NBR production enterprises in China is on the low side. The maintenance of Nandi plant is imminent, and the production of sporadic factories is limited by environmental protection. The market atmosphere around NBR continues to have a preference pattern.
At present, the butadiene market price continues to go up, the external price continues to rise at a high level, the domestic market goes up sharply, the natural rubber futures are strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continue to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market will mainly be sorted out at a high level in the short term.
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