1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 15650 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 16200 yuan / ton. The price rose within the month by 3.51%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic yellow phosphorus rose this month. At present, the spot sales of yellow phosphorus market are basically normal, the spot is a little nervous, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The price in Yunnan increased rapidly, followed by Guizhou, and gradually increased in Sichuan. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16400 yuan / ton; that in Guizhou is about 16200 yuan / ton; in Sichuan, it is about 16000 yuan / ton. The price of phosphorus in Yunnan Province is close to the level, and the enterprises in Sichuan Province are required to cut the price of phosphorus and water. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises still intend to raise the price, but the downstream acceptance is general, and the procurement is cautious. Generally, they take as much as they use.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, as of October 26, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as a week ago. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%. At present, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is 300-360 yuan / ton, that of 28% grade phosphate ore is 280-320 yuan / ton, that of Guizhou Xifeng phosphate mine company is 350 yuan / ton, that of Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining is 300 yuan / ton, and that of Guizhou Fuquan Huifa is 280 yuan / ton. At present, the phosphate ore market in Yunnan and Hubei is in stable operation. The quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is around 270-290 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei Province is 380-400 yuan / ton.

The price of coke market is stable. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2230 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day, and 100 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. On the 28th, the price of coke market was stable and the policy in Shanxi was tight, which had a certain impact on the start-up of local coking enterprises. The coke demand of downstream steel mills is still good, and some steel mills have larger demand for replenishment. In terms of ports, the spot prices of the two ports in Shandong Province tend to be strong, the prices are high and stable, and the market is relatively cold. In the near future, the market will focus on the impact of the implementation of the elimination capacity of coking enterprises on supply.

In terms of demand, the current market price consolidation of phosphoric acid is the main. As of October 27, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 4950 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan is 4700-5400 yuan / ton, and the price is rising steadily; the quotation in Yunnan is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the transaction is stable; the quotation in Beijing is about 4700 yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price is about 4800-5050 yuan / ton The price in Tianjin is about 5600 yuan / ton, which is stable for the time being; the price in Jiangsu is about 4700 yuan / ton, rising steadily. Prices have risen steadily in various places.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of chemical branch of business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise this month. The normal water period is approaching, the electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan will be increased in the next month, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. However, there is a tight demand for phosphorus production in Sichuan. Yellow phosphorus is expected to remain bullish in the short term.