1、 Price trend

The price of aniline rose 200 yuan / ton on Tuesday and then stabilized, according to the data from the business club’s large list. On November 22, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7200-7400 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 7400 yuan / ton; on November 29, aniline price in Shandong was 7400-7600 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 7600-7700 yuan / ton, the average price was 9.71% higher than last week and 13.57% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, this week, pure benzene fell first and then rose, “V” shaped trend, and the overall price fell compared with last week. This Sunday (November 29), the listed price of pure benzene was 4050-4550 yuan / ton (average price 4146 yuan / ton), down 70 yuan / ton or 1.66% compared with last week. At the beginning of the week, the downstream styrene was driven by the downward trend of pure benzene. On Tuesday, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was lowered by 200 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton. In the later period, the original news was positive and continued to rise; the external market rose widely, the arbitrage window of Asia and the United States opened, and the Asian price went up sharply, driving the focus of pure benzene negotiation to turn better and the price rebounded. On Thursday, it increased 200 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton.

Nitric acid prices stabilized this week, with production prices of 1800 yuan / ton in East China on Friday (November 27).

At present, the demand for aniline downstream is stable. Recently, enterprises in Shandong are affected by rain and snow weather, transportation is limited and supply is tight; enterprises in East China carry out more contract orders and less spot delivery, resulting in continuous price rise.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, although the price of styrene fell, it was at a high level as a whole with strong support. At present, the crude oil and external market are favorable, and the domestic pure benzene market is expected to continue to rise. It is expected that pure benzene will be more active next week.

Compared with the price trend of previous years, aniline entered the peak price in October and November, and fell in December. Pay attention to the downward risks of raw materials such as pure benzene and nitric acid, as well as the possibility of demand reduction caused by maintenance or environmental inspection for downstream auxiliaries and MDI.

At present, the cost of action, aniline spot market supply is tight, short-term support for aniline prices. It is expected that aniline price will be raised next week.