Price trend:

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market fell back at a high level in early December, and the spot prices of various brands decreased to varying degrees. As of December 4, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 18500 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 3.91%.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene from up to down in the last ten days of last month, the current domestic styrene price shock adjustment. Early by the downstream product prices and strong demand, strong market mentality. By the end of November, the spot supply of styrene increased and the mainstream price declined. At present, the recent restart of domestic devices is relatively concentrated, and the supply exceeds the demand without improvement. The demand of downstream factories is not strong. Due to the pressure on the downstream cost due to the sharp rise of styrene in the early stage, some factories began to reduce the load under the condition of shrinking profits, and the accumulation of stocks also occurred. External styrene is still weak, upstream pure benzene and ethylene market is OK, styrene support is general. It is expected that the recent styrene market will continue to sort out the market.

In terms of acrylonitrile upstream of ABS, the raw material propylene rose last month, and the acrylonitrile market followed. In addition, the spot supply was in short supply, and there was a certain atmosphere of reluctance to sell and speculation. At the beginning of this month, the spot trend is still slightly higher, but business analysts believe that acrylonitrile will be out of the negative in the near future. At the same time, the operating rate of the downstream acrylic fiber factories has declined recently. The supply of acrylonitrile is in short supply and the demand is stable. It is expected to be smoothed down. At present, the speculation mood of acrylonitrile spot price dropped and the rising trend was narrowed, but the fundamentals were already weak, and it is expected that acrylonitrile will stagnate in the near future.

The price of butadiene rose significantly and lasted for a long time last month. In December, the domestic butadiene market was weak. Domestic and foreign spot supply began to be abundant, and the boost from external plate to domestic market began to weaken. Although the downstream rubber market rose, but the demand is relatively weak. In addition, the natural rubber market is weak, and the support of many factors for butadiene is loose. It is expected that the butadiene market will continue to be weak in the short term.

In December, the domestic ABS market changed, continued a quarter of surplus growth, turned downward adjustment. Upstream three material prices are not strong, cost support weakened. Domestic ABS supply is generally not surplus. On the downstream side, the consumption of major domestic appliance enterprises and automobile industry is still stable, and the market demand has a certain foundation. However, with the long-term rise of ABS, the cost pressure of downstream factories gradually increases. At present, the downstream purchasing operation is more resistant to high price goods. At first, the business offer was stable, but there was a low price of the order, and the actual transaction price dropped more than before. After that, the ex factory price of the five petrochemical plants fell sharply this week, and the price center of gravity changed from a secret drop to a clear one.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: ABS market fell in early December, the price of each brand has a certain downward range. On the cost side, the upstream three materials are weak as a whole, which weakens the support on the cost side of ABS. At present, ABS spot supply is OK, but due to the large rise in the early stage, the downstream seriously conflicts with high price goods. At the end of this week, petrochemical plants and businesses began to reduce their profits by about 700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue the callback trend in the near future.