Trend analysis
According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the cobalt price rebounded slightly on December 16. Can the cobalt market bottom out and rebound in December? As of December 16, the cobalt price was 264500.00 yuan / ton, down 0.31% from 265333.34 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1) and 0.13% higher than that at the beginning of the week (December 14).
Trend of cobalt price in LME Market
It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price fell first and then rose in December. This week, the cobalt price fluctuated and rose, and the international cobalt market recovered slowly, which was good for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price increased. In December, LME cobalt market bottomed out and rebounded, and the favorable situation of cobalt market increased.
Domestic mobile phone production and sales data
According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, the total domestic mobile phone market shipment in November was 29.584 million units, down 15.1% year-on-year. In November, domestic mobile phone sales declined year-on-year, but the decline shrank, and rose sharply on a month on month basis. The rise in mobile phone sales led to a warmer demand in the cobalt market. However, mobile phone sales declined year-on-year, and the cobalt market demand decreased year on year. Compared with the supply of cobalt market, the supply exceeded demand market, and the cobalt market had great downward pressure.
Domestic new energy vehicle market
According to the statistics of CAAC, in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 198000 and 200000, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 75.1% and 104.9%; from January to November, the production of new energy vehicles was 1119000, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and the sales of 1.109 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply year on year, and the sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 also showed a year-on-year positive growth in November. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have risen sharply, and the demand for cobalt market has increased significantly, and the market of cobalt market has increased greatly.
EU new energy vehicle market
According to the data reported by the media, in November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe’s major eight countries reached 134000, up 227% year-on-year and 13% month on month. The cumulative sales volume in Europe from January to November is expected to be 1.1 million, which is expected to reach 1.25 million this year, with a year-on-year growth of more than 120%. The EU’s “Europe 2030 climate target plan” raises the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target from 40% to 60%. With the introduction of various subsidy policies and the target time of banning fuel vehicles, as well as the increase and promotion of new models in Europe, a series of measures have led to a sharp rise in the sales of electric vehicles in Europe, and the impact of the epidemic on the European new energy vehicle market is limited. The sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased greatly, and the demand for cobalt market rose sharply, and the market of cobalt market was favorable.
Market Overview
This week, the price of cobalt in LME market rose again, which is good for domestic cobalt price. This rise in cobalt prices, is the short-term rebound in cobalt prices, or the bottom of the cobalt market rebound? According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, from the perspective of downstream demand, although mobile phone sales still fell sharply year-on-year, but rose on a month on month basis, and the overall mobile phone market slowly recovered; the production and sales of new energy vehicles all rose sharply on a month on month basis. In the post subsidy era, the year-on-year increase in sales of new energy vehicles reflects that the market situation of new energy vehicles is relatively good and gradually increasing, international market, Europe The sales of new energy vehicles have increased greatly, and the impact of the epidemic on new energy vehicles is limited. With the deepening of various promotion policies of new energy vehicles in various countries, new energy vehicles may usher in explosive growth next year. Generally speaking, the demand of cobalt market is expected to increase significantly in the future, but the demand of cobalt market does not increase in the short term. The short-term rising power of cobalt price is limited, and the long-term cobalt price is sufficient. It is expected that the short-term cobalt market will maintain strong stability and the long-term cobalt price will rise sharply.
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