1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong fell from 2183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2143.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.83%, up 20.64% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell this week, with the urea commodity index at 99.69 on March 5.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong fell this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2120 yuan / ton this weekend, down 80 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2180 yuan / ton this weekend, down 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2130 yuan / ton this weekend, down 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the demand side: affected by the rain and snow weather, the agricultural demand slowed down, the terminal purchase intention was general, and the agricultural purchase in the mainstream areas was cautious; the starting load of the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased, and some downstream products were still cautious, with strong wait-and-see mood, and most of them were market-oriented. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons, so the supply is sufficient.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas increased slightly, from 2836.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2913.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.70%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.10%; the price of liquid ammonia was temporarily stable, with an increase of 18.87%, a year-on-year increase of 3360.00 yuan / ton. This week, the quotation of melamine in the downstream of urea rose from 7566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 7.05%, 36.52% year on year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, urea cost support is good and demand is general this week.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of March, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand procurement is cautious, the industrial demand is used as soon as it is purchased, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the urea supply is acceptable, and it is expected that the domestic urea market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.