1、 Price trend
| EDTA |
After the Spring Festival, the price of calcium carbide is climbing, ushering in a 10-year high. The price rise of calcium carbide can be divided into two stages. Before March, the main reason for the rise in the price of calcium carbide was the closure of large foreign PVC factories, the sharp increase in PVC exports, the rising demand and the price of PVC, which led to the rise in the price of calcium carbide. The price of calcium carbide increased by 16.94% from 3050.00 yuan / ton on February 18 to 3566.67 yuan / ton on March 1. After March, the price of calcium carbide rose mainly because of the strict “double control of energy consumption” policy in Inner Mongolia, the power limitation and shutdown of calcium carbide plants, the sharp drop of supply, the shortage of calcium carbide and the sharp rise of calcium carbide price. The price of calcium carbide increased by 43.46% from 3566.67 yuan / ton on March 1 to 5116.67 yuan / ton on March 21. As of March 21, the calcium carbide commodity index of Shangshe was 134.06.
2、 Market analysis
Price changes of shenmulan charcoal after 2000
February 18 – March 1 – March 19
Small material: 890 yuan / ton; 720 yuan / ton; 720 yuan / ton
Medium material: 980 yuan / ton 800 yuan / ton 800 yuan / ton
Large material: 980 yuan / ton 860 yuan / ton 860 yuan / ton
From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain:
From the perspective of the upstream industry chain, the market of shenmulan charcoal dropped slightly after the year. The quotation of small materials fell from 890 yuan / ton on February 18 to 720 yuan / ton on March 19, down 170 yuan / ton. The quotation of Chinese materia medica fell by 180 yuan / ton from 980 yuan / ton on February 18 to 800 yuan / ton on March 19. The price of bulk materials dropped from 980 yuan / ton on February 18 to 860 yuan / ton on March 19, down 120 yuan / ton. Upstream raw material market prices fell slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.
From the point of view of the downstream industry chain, the ex factory price of PVC will rise sharply after the year. The price of PVC increased by 19.26% from 7400.00 yuan / ton on February 18 to 8825.00 yuan / ton on February 24. Then it fluctuated at a high level, with an amplitude of about 2%. Finally, in the middle of March, the price of calcium carbide converged to about 8900 yuan / ton. Downstream PVC prices rose sharply, operating rate rose to about 90%, downstream customers’ demand for calcium carbide rose, and purchasing enthusiasm increased. Pay more attention to PVC market in the future.
Price adjustment of large factories: on March 19, Shaanxi aoweijianeng offered 5150 yuan / ton of calcium carbide, an increase of 1900 yuan / ton compared with February 18; on March 19, Ningxia Xingping fine chemical offered 5000 yuan / ton of calcium carbide, an increase of 2200 yuan / ton compared with February 18; on March 19, Wuhai Zhonglian offered 5200 yuan / ton of calcium carbide, an increase of 2100 yuan / ton compared with February 18.
From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the cost is bad, the supply and demand are good, the supply of calcium carbide is short of demand, and the price of calcium carbide rises sharply after the year.
3、 Future forecast
Inner Mongolia’s policy is strict, and there is no sign of easing at the end of the month. The power supply is limited and the furnace is shut down, and the supply of calcium carbide is still insufficient. The downstream PVC market is not strong enough, and with the resumption of large foreign PVC factories, the domestic PVC construction may decline, and the demand for calcium carbide may be reduced. According to the calcium carbide data division of business society, the price of calcium carbide has a slight fluctuation recently, with an amplitude of about 1%. The calcium carbide market may usher in an inflection point at the end of March and the beginning of April.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |