1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

In April, the melamine market rose strongly, and the price broke through a record high of 10000 yuan. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of April 26, the average price of melamine enterprises was 11500 yuan / ton, up 22.56% compared with the price at the beginning of the month and 125.49% compared with the same period last year.

In the first half of April, the melamine market went up steadily. Some enterprises were mainly export-oriented. Domestic trade demand was just in demand. There were many orders waiting to be issued by the manufacturers. The spot supply was tight. The enterprises did not have the pressure to take the goods. The factory’s offer mentality was firm. In the second half of the month, the price of upstream urea stopped falling and rebounded, the cost support increased, the demand side export was good, and the domestic trade performance was general. Affected by the early orders, the tight market situation continued, and the manufacturer’s quotation pushed up. On the 26th, the mainstream price of domestic melamine market was around 11200-12000 yuan / ton.

Upstream urea, April 26, Shandong urea market rose. In the aspect of demand, agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them followed the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, with a decrease, and the daily output is about 150000 tons. Urea plant maintenance, supply side tightening.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on April 26, 2021, in the list of commodity prices, there were 23 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were melamine (9.52%), acetic acid (3.69%) and acetic anhydride (3.03%). There were 19 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and one commodity with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were epoxy resin (- 6.72%), polymerized MDI (- 2.16%) and hydrogen peroxide (- 2.10%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.18%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that due to the recent price rise of upstream urea, the cost support is strengthened, and the downstream cost is under pressure. They just need to follow up passively, and the tight supply supports the upward mentality of manufacturers. It is expected that the melamine market will be strong in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.