Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2760.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.45%, and a year-on-year increase of 70.39%. Overall, urea market rose this week, with urea commodity index at 130.23 on July 2.

Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down and supply side was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas increased slightly, from 3666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.27%, up 53.48% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal dropped slightly, from 995.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 975.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.01%, up 69.89% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4416.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4433.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.38%, 44.56% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 10733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%.

From the aspect of demand, the demand of agriculture in different areas has been cooling down, and the demand of agriculture has been decreasing; However, the price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches has risen, and the construction of rubber sheet factories and melamine enterprises is acceptable, and most of them are used as soon as they are mined. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea plants is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept at a low position. Affected by the shortage of coal, some areas begin to reduce production. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is stable, and urea supply is tight.

Agricultural demand decreases and future prices are bearish

In the first ten days of July, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, the industrial demand has not seen obvious positive, the urea supply is tight, the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, and the market price mainly fluctuates slightly.