1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 9137.5 yuan / ton on July 30, an increase of 137.5 yuan compared with 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 1.53% within the month, an increase of 41.12% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the PVC market leveled first and then rose. In the second half of the month, the price rose vigorously and continued to maintain a high operating state. In the first half of July, the PVC market generally operated steadily, the price fluctuation range was less than 1%, and there was little adjustment. The futures price tried to rebound for many times, but stopped at 9000. The boost to the spot market was limited. In the second half of the month, the PVC futures rose strongly, broke through the barrier, driving the spot market to rise slightly. In addition, due to the influence of the limited power policy of raw calcium carbide, As a result of the tight supply of goods, the price rose to more than 5000 yuan / ton, the cost support was strong, and PVC went up. At the same time, due to the impact of tight raw materials and high prices, some PVC enterprises have reduced their operating load and device maintenance, the market supply has decreased, the supply side is good, and PVC has increased. Near the end of the month, the off-season factors and high price transactions were negative, and the PVC price decreased slightly, but it still showed an upward trend in the whole month.

In terms of spot, at present, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 electric stone in China is mostly around 9100-9300 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9100-9200 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9100-9250 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9200-9280 yuan / ton; Local markets adjusted slightly.

In terms of futures, the price of PVC futures rose in July, rising to around 9300, driving the price trend of the spot market. On August 2, the opening price of v2109 contract: 9105, the highest price: 9110, the lowest price: 8895, the position: 332553, the settlement price: 8975, yesterday’s settlement: 9185, down: 210.

region technology 7 / 29 (yuan / ton) 7 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 9220-9320 9030-9010 + 190/+310 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 9250-9320 9080-9150 + 170/+170 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 9050-9130 8930-9010 + 120/+120 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 9050-9150 8950-9100 + 100/+50 Delivered

International crude oil, on July 30, the international oil price closed up. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $73.95/barrel, up US $0.33 or 0.5%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $75.41/barrel, up us $0.31 or 0.4%.

Ethylene, July 30, European ethylene market quotation, FD northwest Europe quotation of US $1309-1319 / ton, CIF northwest Europe quotation of US $1214-1218 / ton, July 30, American ethylene market, FD American Gulf quotation of US $1045-1062 / ton, recent American ethylene market quotation is stable, demand is general, July 30, Asian ethylene market quotation, CFR Northeast Asia quotation of US $1001-1011 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quotation is USD 1001-1011 / ton. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable.. Affected by the rising price of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the later stage.

On July 30, the reference price of calcium carbide was 5133.33, up 11.59% compared with July 1 (4600.00). The price of blue carbon in the upstream increased slightly, the cost support was good, the PVC market in the downstream was consolidated at a high level, and the demand for calcium carbide increased. In the future, calcium carbide rose slightly, and a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia began. The output of calcium carbide decreased and the supply was in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the current off-season is out, the downstream demand is limited, the atmosphere of high price transaction is general, and the offer of goods holders is loose, but the raw material calcium carbide is operating at a high level, and the cost support is still in place. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term PVC market will be generally stable with small fluctuations.