1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On August 8, the price of pure benzene was 7450-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7610 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (August 15), the price of pure benzene was 7450-7600 yuan / ton (average price 7540 yuan / ton). The average price was 70 yuan / ton lower than last week, down 0.92%; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 119.19%.

2、 Analysis and review

In the early stage of this week, due to the significant increase of pure benzene port inventory and the decline of styrene, the market mentality was suppressed, and the price continued to decline last week; Styrene rebounded in the second half of the week, driving the slight recovery of pure benzene. The epidemic spread, Limited Logistics in many places, limited shipment of enterprises, and affected demand at the same time. This week, Sinopec cut the listing price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Friday (August 13) was US $979 / ton, which was flat compared with last week on August 6; The reference import price in East China was US $990 / T, down US $6 / T or 0.6% month on month on August 6.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta virus has dragged down the market mentality, and the market is worried that the growth of demand will be restrained. However, the decline in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories led to a rebound in oil prices. It is reported that the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week increased by 10 compared with last week and 225 compared with the same period last year. On August 6, Brent fell by US $0.11/barrel, or 0.16%; WTI rose US $0.16/barrel, or 0.23%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell first and then rose this week. On August 13, the price of sample enterprises was 9000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 71.43% compared with the same period last year. This week, the average operation of domestic styrene plants was 76.31%, down 1.5% from last week. On the whole, in the case of cash flow loss, the output reduction of styrene unit in August was higher than that in July, but the fundamentals of domestic styrene market were still weak, and the cost support was weaker than that in the early stage.

Aniline: Jiangsu Yangnong started shipping within the week, and another 100000 t / a unit of Nanhua was restarted. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the shipment of enterprises was blocked, and the increment of market outward release changed little. The cost trend gradually stabilized, and the downstream demand was stable as a whole. The price of aniline was stabilized and consolidated this week. On August 13, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10400-10600 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 10600-10700 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the global spread of mutated virus and the increase of crude oil production have pressured the oil price, and the short-term trend of oil price is weak. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the price of pure benzene went down, and the profit space of downstream products rebounded. Downstream main product styrene: under the influence of the global epidemic, the prospect of crude oil demand is under pressure. Although pure benzene has support, the profit point of styrene has been opened, and pure benzene can no longer guide the trend of styrene. The maintenance plan of styrene unit began to be implemented gradually in August, and the inventory fell slightly. The downstream will gradually transition to the peak season, and there is a new unit production plan. With the operating rate rising gradually, The demand for styrene will also increase slightly. It is expected that the short-term trend of styrene will rebound.

The trend of cost is full of uncertainty, which is difficult to support pure benzene; The downstream profit space expanded and the demand for pure benzene rebounded. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will stabilize next week, but the rebound lacks strong support. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.