1、 Price data

As of August 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6773.25 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from 6762.60 yuan / ton on August 23. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6700-6900 yuan / ton.

As of August 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 6607.50 yuan / ton, down 0.41% from 6635.00 yuan / ton on August 23. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 6400-6700 yuan / ton.

On August 29, the naphtha commodity index was 83.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.54% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 97.89% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, the refined naphtha market was weak, and the downstream was mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream: international crude oil rose sharply, mainly due to the decline of crude oil and refined oil inventories in the United States last week according to the data of the American Petroleum Association (API). After superimposing the peak of China’s epidemic, demand continued to recover, boosting market confidence. In addition, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories fell for the third consecutive week, Push oil prices to continue to rise.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene fluctuated and fell this week. The price of toluene was 5682 yuan / ton on August 22 and 5630 yuan / ton on August 29, down 0.71% from last week. Mixed xylene rebounded slightly after falling this week and continued to decline. The price of mixed xylene was 5750 yuan / ton on August 22 and 5730 yuan / ton on August 29, down 0.35% from last week. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 7300 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 34th week of 2021 (8.23-8.27), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were WTI crude oil (8.50%), Brent crude oil (7.67%) and coking coal (6.87%). A total of 0 commodities decreased month on month. The average rise and fall this week was 3.21%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent sharp rise in international crude oil, the weak operation of local refined naphtha market, less market trading, downstream on-demand procurement, strong market wait-and-see mood, and it is expected that the weak consolidation of local refined naphtha in the near future.