1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on September 24 was 19300 yuan / ton, which was 11650 yuan higher than the price of 7650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 152.29% higher in the month and 296.98% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the phosphoric acid market soared, with an increase of more than 150% in the month and about 300% year-on-year. Its value doubled, and quickly became the leading product in the chemical industry. This month, driven by the rise of raw materials, the enterprise started at a low level, the supply side was tightened, and the favorable support price continued to rise, breaking through the 20000 yuan mark at one stroke, creating a new height in the past decade. In the first week of September, the phosphoric acid market was generally stable, but some enterprises had planned to increase; In the second week, due to the impact of environmental protection, the start-up of raw material yellow phosphorus was low, and the price rose to 30000 yuan. The cost side promoted the phosphoric acid market to actively follow up, quickly breaking through the 9000 yuan mark, with a sword pointing at 10000 yuan; In the third week, the raw material yellow phosphorus rose to 60000 yuan, the increase of phosphoric acid increased, with an increase of more than 40% within the week, and the number of start-up enterprises decreased, the market supply side was tight, so it was necessary to queue up for delivery; In the fourth week, before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, the market price of phosphoric acid has not stopped rising. Enterprises have few goods and many customers, and the quotation is basically above 20000 yuan. Now the maximum price is 25000 yuan / ton. Moreover, the introduction of the dual control policy of energy consumption has exacerbated the rising atmosphere in the market. At present, the market is in short supply, the quotation is chaotic, and the price increases every day. The actual transactions are mostly negotiation.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the prices are mostly around 20000 yuan, and the focus is rising. As of the 24th, the quotation in Jiangsu is 22000-23000 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 15000 yuan / ton, that in Guangzhou is about 17000-21000 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 20000-25000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 23000 yuan / ton, and that in Yunnan is 24000 yuan / ton, The quotation in Shandong is 20000-23000 yuan / ton, and the price of phosphoric acid in various places rose sharply in September.

According to the monthly increase and decrease from September 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021, it can be seen that the price of phosphoric acid is the main player in the cycle. Only in December 2020 and June 2121, the price decreases. The increase in May, July and August is more than 10%, while the increase in September is amazing, up to about 150%.

On September 24, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 60000.00, an increase of 108.7% compared with September 1 (28750.00). In September, yellow phosphorus enterprises limited voltage load, reduced production capacity and intensified spot tension. The price of upstream phosphorus ore and coke increased, and the price of downstream phosphoric acid increased all the way. The downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price. The acceptance of high price yellow phosphorus was high. On the whole, the market confidence was good and the upstream and downstream support was strong.

On September 23, the average price of phosphorus ore in the domestic phosphorus ore market was 643.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous working day. On the 23rd, the domestic phosphate ore market has been running steadily as a whole. At present, the mine supply is still tight. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou are tight and the price is high. A small amount of spot goods are mainly orders from old customers. On the 23rd, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guizhou was around 540-560 yuan / ton. On the 23rd, there was little change in the overall market supply and demand. Future forecast: the National Day is approaching, and the demand may increase before the festival. It is expected that the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong and operate at a high level.

Ammonium phosphate, the current market situation of Monoammonium is poor. Although the support of raw materials is good, the terminal demand is weak and there is still inventory. The price of monoammonium phosphate is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term. At present, the external demand for diammonium is acceptable and the domestic market is weak. It is expected that diammonium phosphate will mainly operate stably in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, the raw material price rose sharply in September, coupled with the overweight of the dual control policy of energy consumption, the phosphorus chemical industry was obviously affected. Many phosphoric acid plants operated under reduced load, the operating rate declined, the market supply was scarce, and the price soared to a new high. With the stabilization of the raw material yellow phosphorus market, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, the high price transaction is negative, and the rise of phosphoric acid is slower than that in the early stage, but the enterprise’s low out intention is not strong, and it still maintains a high operation in the short term