1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, it was in the festival in the first half of the week and returned after the festival. The price of aniline stabilized after rising and fell over the weekend. On September 17, the price in Shandong was 11200-11420 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 11500 yuan / ton; On September 24, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10900-11200 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11300-11500 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 3.36% compared with last week, increased by 1.53% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 39.66% compared with the beginning of the year, and increased by 132.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, affected by the “dual control” policy in the downstream, the shutdown of multiple units decreased significantly, and the downstream operating rate decreased significantly. In East China, the shutdown of styrene, aniline and caprolactam and the reduction of phenol. In terms of pure benzene units, Yangba and CNOOC Taizhou reduced the load and shut down. However, the impact on downstream is much greater than that on pure benzene; In addition, the reserve of pure benzene in the downstream is relatively sufficient due to short supply in the early stage, and the resistance to high priced pure benzene in the downstream is strengthened and the follow-up is weakened. The demand for pure benzene decreased sharply, and the pure benzene fell broadly during the week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered to 7650-7700 yuan / ton.

Nitric acid rose slightly this week. On Friday (September 24), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3100 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.32% over last week and 104.4% over the same period last year. Industrial power is limited, and the supply of nitric acid may be tight.

Many aniline plants in East China shut down to reduce the load, resulting in a large loss of aniline production capacity. The inventory of aniline enterprises was low and the price was strong during the week. The downstream has strong resistance to high price aniline. Affected by the weakening of downstream delivery sentiment at the weekend, the high price of aniline fell back.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the downstream capacity loss in Jiangsu is large. It is expected that the stock replenishment at the end of the month is general, and the pure benzene market is difficult to recover in the short term, but the decline is expected to slow down.

Device dynamics: Jiangsu Yangnong device was restarted and operated at low load; Jinling, Jinmao and Huatai units resumed normal operation. Nanhua and Jiangsu Fuqiang are still parking. The support of aniline raw material end is weakened, the downstream domestic trade demand is insufficient, and there is a possibility of decline, but the enterprise maintains low inventory, and the decline is expected to be limited. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.