1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 28750 yuan / ton. As of September 16, the quotation was 60000 yuan / ton, and the price increased by 108.7%. In the following two weeks, the external quotation of most enterprises of yellow phosphorus was suspended, and only a few enterprises made external quotation.

2、 Market analysis

According to an online document in September, Yunnan development and Reform Commission issued the notice of Yunnan provincial energy conservation leading group office on resolutely doing a good job in energy consumption double control, which mentioned that the production control of yellow phosphorus industry should be strengthened to ensure that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production line from September to December 2021 should not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 (i.e. 90% reduction). Affected by this news, the downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price. The spot situation of yellow phosphorus was tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus increased significantly.

Near the end of the month, the environmental protection inspectors in Sichuan are basically over. It is expected that the number of kick-off meetings will increase after the festival, the power rationing situation in Guizhou will be alleviated slightly, and the commencement after the festival will be gradually improved. Up to now, most yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotation, and the market quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 60000-65000 yuan / ton. Be cautious in downstream procurement and prepare goods slightly.

As for phosphate rock, as of September 27, the average price of domestic phosphate rock market was 643.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous working day. On the 27th, the overall domestic phosphate ore market continued to operate at a high level and stably. The supply of phosphate ore mines was still tight. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou suspended receiving orders without goods, mainly contract users. On the 27th, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guizhou was around 600-630 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant was around 530-570 yuan / ton. The market supply was relatively stable. It is expected that the domestic phosphate ore market will continue to operate stably before the national day.

In terms of coke, the coke market operated stably temporarily. The first round of lifting and lowering of steel mills was opened on the 27th, but coke enterprises said they did not accept the lifting and lowering. Some coke enterprises opened the twelfth round of lifting and raising by 200 yuan / ton. The game mentality of coke and steel was strong. At a meeting of coke enterprises on the 27th, most coke enterprises said that at present, the coal price is too high, the profit of steel mills is OK, the coke supply is tight, and coke enterprises still have the intention to raise prices. The demand of steel mills slows down, the coke supply is slightly better than that in the early stage, the demand for goods preparation before the festival still exists, and the coke steel game mentality is strong. It is expected that the coke market will maintain a temporary stable operation before the festival. The future market will focus on the commencement of coke steel enterprises, the implementation of double control, environmental protection and the profits of coke steel enterprises. Up to now, the quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4270 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphoric acid, as of September 27, the phosphoric acid market was temporarily stable. Some enterprises mostly adjusted their quotation according to inventory, but the offer was still high. As the raw material price tended to stabilize, the wait-and-see mood of the industry rose. The phosphoric acid market is expected to operate stably in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business society believes that in the first half of the month, the yellow phosphorus enterprises limited voltage load, reduced production capacity and intensified spot tension. The price of phosphorus ore and coke in the upstream increased, and the downstream purchased at a high price. The market price of yellow phosphorus rose sharply this month. Near the end of the month, the price of raw materials tends to be stable, the downstream phosphoric acid operates stably temporarily, and the enterprise purchases cautiously and prepares goods slightly. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will be stable temporarily in the short term.