Domestic price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the price trend of p-xylene in September was temporarily stable. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 7100 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price of 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 54.35%. The price trend of domestic PX market was stable in September.

In September, the domestic p-xylene supply was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Pengzhou petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Jinling Petrochemical, Qingdao Lidong and Qilu Petrochemical operated stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical unit is about 50%, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but the start-up of overseas units is general, and the domestic p-xylene price remains high affected. In September, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the external price of PX changed little. As of the 28th, the closing prices in Asia were US $887-889 / T FOB Korea and US $905-907 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is less than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is general, and the closing price of PX has little change. Affected by the external price, the price trend of domestic p-xylene Market is temporarily stable.

In September, the international crude oil price rose sharply, with an increase of 9.91%. The international crude oil price continued to rise. On the one hand, after the passage of Hurricane IDA, it brought the greatest destructive force to the oil and gas production in the United States in 13 years, making the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico slow, while the recovery rate of American refineries was faster than that of crude oil production, As a result, concerns about tight supply heated up and boosted the market. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term. The EIA routinely released the commercial crude oil inventory data on Wednesday. Once the data was released, the market was significantly boosted, and the decline of crude oil inventory was much greater than the market expectation. As of September 28, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $75.29/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $78.35/barrel. On the whole, the international crude oil price rose sharply in September, and the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

In September, the price trend of downstream PTA market rose. As of No. 29, the average price of PTA market was 5200-5300 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.49% in September. The maintenance of PTA unit increased, and the industrial operation decreased to around 68%. Meanwhile, the supplier Hengli Petrochemical’s supply decreased by 30% in October, and there is no pressure on the supply side. In addition, the raw material side was also boosted to a certain extent, and crude oil continued to rise at a high level, enhancing the support for PTA cost. Downstream polyester factories cautiously followed the rise, but the textile terminal industry was affected by the power restriction of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the “double reduction and double control” of printing and dyeing plants, and the insufficient quality of “golden nine silver ten”, and the operating load of looms quickly decreased to less than 55%. In the near future, the maintenance of PTA unit is concentrated, and the supply is expected to decrease, which supports the market; Downstream demand is affected by “dual control”, and the market maintains rigid demand. With the improvement of its own fundamental supply and the strengthening of the atmosphere of the whole commodity market, the PTA market may continue to be strong in a narrow range in the short term, and the overall market trend of the downstream is OK, but the operating rate has decreased significantly, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is a certain positive support for the current crude oil cost, and the short-term crude oil price may maintain an upward trend. However, the downstream polyester operating rate is reduced, and the orders in the textile industry are lack of highlights. It is expected that the market price trend of p-xylene will fall slightly in the later period.